London Heathrow and other UK airports are the most vulnerable, with flight cancellations due to fuel shortages already occurring. Regional airline Skybus has canceled one route due to rising prices.
According to estimates by the analytical company Kpler, French airports may be next in line.
– According to our estimates, France has the second largest supply deficit in relation to demand after Great Britain – emphasizes George Shaw, senior oil analyst at Kpler, noting that France has the opportunity to obtain additional fuel from sources outside the Persian Gulf region.
The war started by the United States and Israel against Iran prompted Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz to most ships, disrupting global energy markets. Until recently, about one-fifth of the world's oil supplies passed through the strait.
Aviation fuel prices in Europe reached a record high on Thursday $1,900 (PLN 7,000) per tonne, according to data from the specialist magazine “Argus”. So far, airports on the continent have enough fuel supplies to keep planes flying, but Argus is warning of potential shortages.
According to the forecasts of the publication Portugal could exhaust jet fuel supplies within four months. Hungary can exhaust them within five, Denmark within six, Italy and Germany within seven, and France and Ireland within eight. Poland is almost self-sufficient in aviation fuel, so it will probably not face a crisis.
Passengers at Frankfurt am Main airport in western Germany, March 12, 2026,Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP / AFP
“The current situation in the Middle East and the uncertainty about how long it will last does raise concerns about the availability of jet fuel in Europe in the coming weeks and months,” notes Ourania Georgoutsakou, managing director of the Airlines for Europe lobby.
Dangerous dependency
Even before the war in the Middle East, airlines signaled that the European Union is facing a structural deficit of aviation fuelcaused partly by sanctions on Russian oil and declining European refining capacity. European jet fuel production is based on imported crude oil, mainly from the Middle East.
“Europe has long been an importer of jet fuel, with imports accounting for about 30% of regional demand,” the International Air Transport Association (IATA), a trade body of about 300 airlines, warned last year.
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“This growing dependence on imports, combined with uneven infrastructure development, increases the risk of local shortages and price volatility, especially if geopolitical shocks or sanctions further reduce the global availability of jet fuel,” the organization stressed in its 2025 analysis, which now sounds prescient.
Although Shaw singled out France as the second country in Europe most vulnerable to a potential fuel crisis, he believes that Paris will have fewer problems than London with replenishing the missing oil volumes, even if supplies from the Persian Gulf remain blocked.
“It can bring supplies by land from the Netherlands or Belgium, which act as European oil centers because they are the main entry point for oil transported by sea,” he points out.
No prospects for ending the war
Despite the looming fuel crisis, airlines are struggling to save fuel. Since the beginning of the war in Iran carriers are forced to fly longer routesto bypass the Persian Gulf, which causes greater wear and tear.
According to European air traffic organization Eurocontrol, “1,150 daily flights are likely to continue to be affected by rerouting over the summer while the conflict continues in its current form.”
A quick end to the war seems unlikely after US President Donald Trump's warning to Iran on Thursday. – In the next two to three weeks we will hit them extremely hard, we will return them to the Stone Age, where they belong, he emphasized.
This makes airports and airlines increasingly worried about access to fuel. “The longer hostilities last, the greater the impact on demand. This is associated with increases in fuel prices and potential fuel shortages in many parts of the world, which may also affect the number of flights as well as ticket prices,” Eurocontrol said.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
