The occupiers concentrated their main efforts on breaking through the so-called “belt of fortresses” of Ukraine in the Donetsk region.
According to analysts, the army of the aggressor country of the Russian Federation has intensified ground attacks in the Liman direction, trying to advance to Slavyansk from the northeast. In the future, this should probably create conditions for new attacks on the city from the east and southeast. The Ukrainian military reported on March 21 that on March 19, units of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation carried out a major assault of approximately battalion level in this area. According to the Ukrainian side, more than 500 military personnel, dozens of armored vehicles, as well as over 100 motorcycles, buggies and ATVs took part in the attack.
ISW notes that such an assault was noticeably larger than most Russian mechanized attacks in recent months. The Ukrainian military also says that the Russian army is changing tactics: instead of moving in large columns, equipment is now dispersed in several directions at the same time. It is assumed that in this way the Russian troops are trying to overload the Ukrainian defense, based, among other things, on the use of drones.
At the same time, according to the Ukrainian military, Russia is intensifying preparations for an offensive in the Kramatorsk and Konstantinovsky directions in order to develop pressure on the southern part of the “belt of fortresses.” They record the transfer of personnel and equipment, an increase in the number of attacks by FPV drones, artillery and tactical aviation, as well as attempts to occupy commanding heights on the approaches to Konstantinovka.
At the same time, ISW believes that in 2026, Russian forces are unlikely to be able to completely capture the Ukrainian “belt of fortresses,” although they may achieve some tactical successes at the cost of heavy losses.
Analysts point out that the advance of the Russian army is complicated by Ukrainian positions on dominant heights east of Slavyansk, attacks on Russian multiple launch rocket systems and a broad campaign to damage the rear infrastructure of the Russian Federation. In addition, the Ukrainian military reports that Russia has reduced the period of basic training for assault units from a month to a week, likely in an attempt to quickly replace losses at the front.
