Germany at the ballot box. Will SPD lose its western stronghold after more than three decades?

The SPD, which has been ruling in Rhineland-Palatinate for 35 years, will fight on Sunday to win the elections in this federal state against Chancellor Freidrich Merz's CDU. After a campaign dominated by economic and educational issues, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is hoping for a historic result.

Elections to the state parliament will be held in Rhineland-Palatinate on Sunday. A poll for ZDF from the last days of the campaign indicates a close race between the CDU and the SPD. The Christian Democrats can count on 29 percent. votes, and SPD – 27 percent. In third place is the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) with trust at the level of 19%. The five percent threshold is also exceeded by the Greens (9%) and the Left (5%).

Rhineland-Palatinate is a stronghold of the SPD, the Social Democrats have been in power in this western German state for 35 years. Losing power in Mainz, the capital of the federal state, would be a “deadly signal” for a group that is struggling at the federal level, says “Der Spiegel”. The mood in the SPD is tense because in the elections in Baden-Württemberg two weeks ago, the “reds” obtained only 5.5 percent. votes.

– At the state level, the campaign focuses strongly on the personalities of the candidates – explains Professor Kai Arzheimer, professor of political science at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz. If this were true, the Social Democrats are in a better situation because in polls their leading candidate (and the state's prime minister for two years), Alexander Schweitzer, is several percentage points more popular than his rival from the Christian Democrats, Gordon Schnieder.

206 cm tall and 100,000 houses to visit

There is no bad blood between politicians and there are no major quarrels in their debates. Both of them try to show that they focus on pragmatism. They also emphasize issues related to education and criticize the AfD's “toxic offer”. They agree with the proposal to introduce a ban on the use of social media for children under 14 years of age.

Schweitzer is distinguished by his height – he measures as much as 206 cm. In the campaign, he focuses on field work, he often goes to the countryside, talks to farmers and shop workers. He emphasizes that he is the first in his family to graduate from high school, declares that “politics should be freed from ideology” and that “you don't have to swim in the social-democratic soup.” SPD has set itself an ambitious goal in the campaign – in a land inhabited by just over four million people, it intends to reach 100,000. houses.

A glance at the electoral map and you can understand why the social democrats – as best they can – are trying to “open up” also to rural areas. In the land known for wine production, the AfD is gaining popularity. Some circles on the maps are painted blue (the color of the AfD), which means that the party is already the first choice here. In western Germany this is a phenomenon.

This includes, among others: Kaiserslautern, one of the largest cities in the Palatinate, located right next to the American Ramstein base. For decades, SPD was the strongest party there, and the group's natural base was a large public and industrial sector and strong trade unions. However, many frustrated by deindustrialization are now leaving the SPD and choosing the AfD.

– Everything here has been closed recently. Pharmacy, bakery, supermarket, gas station. The government does not spend this money here in the country, but sends it to Ukraine – says one voter from Kaiserslautern, quoted by “Spiegel”.

According to surveys, in Rhineland-Palatinate, the economy is the most important issue for residents when making decisions at the ballot box. A study by the Insa center shows that as many as 77 percent voters consider the economy to be an important or very important topic. That is why local AfD politicians who criticize the CDU and SPD for their economic program exude self-confidence. They openly talk about exceeding the 20 percent threshold. votes, which would be a historic result, the best ever in the west of the country.

– We are not popular in the city, but the province is ours. There will be places where we will get over 40%. votes – Juergen Wiedenhoefer, a city councilor in Mainz who is running for the state parliament, tells PAP.

However, even exceeding 20 percent, AfD has no chance of being in the ruling coalition in Rhineland-Palatinate. Such a breakthrough is expected by this party's voters after the September votes in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Education has become the battleground for votes in the Rhineland

The topics raised by the AfD, apart from the economy, are migration and security. In Rhineland-Palatinate, during the campaign, there was a lot of talk about the school in Ludwigshafen, which “Bild” called “the most dangerous in Germany”. The state Minister of Education, Sven Teuber from the SPD, arrived there, promising help in difficult times: training, more staff and additional patrols. For the AfD, this facility is just a manifestation of a broader problem. – The quality of our education is falling dramatically, and this is due to the fact that there are more and more children in classes who do not speak German – argues Wiedenhoefer.

Education is also one of the main areas of concern for the Greens, who are hoping for a double-digit result and are encouraged by the victory of Baden-Württemberg two weeks ago.

– We see that youth meetings are becoming less and less frequent, and instead many are moving to the digital world. This worries us. We want to counteract this and strengthen meeting places for young people, especially in rural areas. We want to support such spaces for common living as part of a democratic package worth EUR 130 million, explains Katrin Eder, the party's main candidate in the elections to the federal parliament.

The Greens are a party that is very concerned about the growing popularity of the AfD. – The AfD looks different here than in the east, but it is equally radical and poses a threat to our democracy. We must protect democracy. As Greens, we will join the national government only if it supports the procedure of banning the AfD in the Bundesrat, and we will create a 24-hour contact point for people affected by hostility and violence, Eder declares in an interview with PAP.

From Mainz Mateusz Obremski (PAP)

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