2026-03-17 09:36
publication
2026-03-17 09:36
Lower-than-expected core inflation and a surprisingly positive current account balance were factors that supported the zloty rate on Monday. However, Tuesday morning brought another increase in oil prices, which stopped the further strengthening of the Polish currency.
On Tuesday morning, the euro was valued at PLN 4.2730, i.e. 0.3 grosz higher than the day before, when it became cheaper by almost a grosz. Since the beginning of March, the euro to zloty exchange rate has fluctuated in the range of PLN 4.2250-4.3070. Only breaking the resistance zone at PLN 4.30-4.31 would be a very negative signal for the zloty.
Monday brought some information that supported the Polish zloty. Firstly, February's core inflation turned out to be lower than expected, and after over 6 years it was finally within the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland. Secondly, in January Poland recorded a high positive current account balance, which is good news for the Polish currency. And finally, thirdly, reports began to appear in the media about the possible end of American attacks on Iran.
Advertisement
Unfortunately, later the Iranians committed further attacks on oil installations in the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, which led to another increase in oil prices. Brent crude oil costs over one hundred dollars per barrel again, which for us and the whole world means high fuel prices, inflationary pressure, increased transport costs and the risk of a decline in discretionary consumer spending. This means slower economic growth and higher inflation.
– We assume that in the absence of any news that could lead to a further significant escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, investors will position themselves ahead of the meetings of key central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ) scheduled for later this week, considered in the context of decision-makers' assessment of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on current macroeconomic projections, in particular regarding inflation, and future decisions on interest rates – wrote PKO BP analysts in a morning report.
– During Tuesday's session, this should help reduce market volatility and maintain EURPLN and USDPLN rates in the range of 4.27-4.28 and 3.70-3.7450, respectively – they added.
After Monday's weakening, the US dollar exchange rate on Tuesday morning was PLN 3.7190. On Friday and Monday, the USD/PLN rate tested an important barrier of PLN 3.75. This local maximum from August 2025 is currently the most important technical resistance and its possible break would herald a further increase in the dollar.
Meanwhile, XtB analysts believe that after the end of the war with Iran, when the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, we can expect the zloty to strengthen against the dollar. – If the war with Iran ends and the crisis in Hormuz is averted, we can expect a return to the pre-war downward trend,” said Eryk Szmyd, an XTB financial markets analyst.
Occasionally emerging hopes for an end to the US-Israeli war with Iran have led to a decline in demand for the Swiss franc. The Helvetic currency weakened slightly against the euro after the EUR/CHF rate set a new historic low at the beginning of last week. On Tuesday morning, the price for a franc on the Polish interbank market was PLN 4.72.
K.K
The publication contains affiliate links.
