The world's second strongest player is changing the rules. China's new five-year plan

China focuses on technological self-sufficiency, security and innovation – according to the draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), published last week by the Xinhua agency. This is a signal of a departure from the model based on cheap labor and real estate investments.

The new five-year plan was formally approved at the end of the so-called Two Sessions, i.e. a parallel meeting of the façade parliament, the National People's Congress (National People's Congress), and the advisory body, the People's Political Consultative Conference.

The concept of “new productive forces”

Central to the new economic plan is the signaling concept of “new productive forces.” retreat from the model based on cheap labor and real estate investments. It is a manifesto of economic and strategic reorientation under Xi Jinping.

Document marginalizes the development sectorspeaking only about the “healthy development” of this industry, which ruins hopes for a return to the investment boom. Its place is to be taken by advanced industry supported by a powerful internal market, which is to make China more resistant to shocks in global trade.

“Get immune to the USA”

It becomes a priority “technological self-sufficiency”. In response to American sanctions, the plan announces the implementation of a “new nationwide system” that will centrally control research on breakthrough technologies in order to become independent from the West. In this context, the program will play a key role Artificial Intelligence+aimed at comprehensive integration of AI with industry, services and public administration.

The plan also announced: creating legal mechanisms to fight foreign sanctions and the “long arm of jurisdiction”, an allusion to the US. Security of food and energy supply chains has been raised to the rank of foundation for the survival of the state.

The Chinese Communist Party intends to concentrate state resources on domination in high-tech sectors: biotechnology, space industry and green transformation.

Challenges: demography, AI, military, climate

The document also addresses the biggest challenges. Strong for the first time emphasizes the need to build a “fertility-friendly society”admitting that without reducing the costs of upbringing and education, it will not be possible to stop the demographic catastrophe in the country.

In the military sphere, the plan sets the stage for achieving modernization goals for the Army's centenary in 2027, emphasizing fusion of the army and the private sector and the development of intelligent combat capabilities.

Regarding Taiwan, the rhetoric remains unchanged, but opposition to “interference by external forces” has been strengthened, which is also interpreted as a signal to Washington.

The plan confirms too China's commitment to peak CO2 emissions by 2030.

During the opening speech of the National People's Congress, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang announced GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5-5%, which is a departure from the level of “around 5%” maintained in recent years. In turn, the defense budget is to increase by 7 percent, up from 7.2 percent. last year

The tradition of central planning dates back to 1953, when Mao Zedong announced the first plan based on the Soviet model. Although China has since undergone a market transformation, the five-year plans still define the framework for the development of the world's second largest economy.

From Beijing Krzysztof Pawliszak (PAP)

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