The inflation projection of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) assumes that inflation will be in the range of 3.6-3.7% with a 50% probability. in 2025 compared to 3.5-4.4 percent in the projection from July this year. This means that there is less and less uncertainty and inflation is falling.
In 2026, with the same probability, the inflation range was set at 1.9-4%. in 2026 compared to 1.7-4.5 percent in July. The upper limit of the range fell more than the lower one, so these are also more optimistic assumptions than those from four months ago. The situation is worse with the forecast for 2027, where the range of fluctuations is set at 1.1-4.1%. compared to 0.9-3.8 percent in July. The numbers were given in a statement after the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) after Wednesday's decision to reduce interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.
“Taking into account the decline in inflation and the improvement in its prospects in the coming quarters, in the Council's assessment it became justified to adjust the level of NBP interest rates. Further decisions of the Council will depend on the incoming information regarding the outlook for inflation and economic activity. Risk factors for low inflation remain shape of fiscal policy, revival of demand in the economy and increased wage growth. The source of uncertainty is the level of energy prices and inflation patterns around the world” – emphasized in the announcement.
In addition to the inflation projection, GDP dynamics was also estimated. The annual economic growth rate according to the projection will be in the range of 3.1-3.8% with 50% probability. in 2025 (compared to 2.9-4.3% in the projection from July this year), 2.7-4.6% in 2026 (vs. 2.1-4.1 percent) and 1.5-3.7 percent. in 2027 (vs. 1.3-3.7%) – mentioned.
“According to preliminary data, the annual GDP growth rate in the euro area in the third quarter of 2025 decreased to 1.3% yoy. Also in the United States, GDP growth probably slowed down year-on-year in the third quarter. Inflation in the euro area is close to the European Central Bank's inflation target, while core inflation remains slightly higher. In the United States, inflation is above the Federal Reserve's target, with core inflation elevated. Outlook activity and inflation in the world are subject to uncertainty, including in connection with changes in trade policy,” we read in the statement after the MPC meeting.
In Poland, the latest data suggest that the favorable economic situation will continue. In particular, retail sales, industrial production and construction and assembly production increased year-on-year in September. At the same time, quarterly data from the enterprise sector indicate a gradual decline in wage dynamics, with a further decline in employment on an annual basis, it was also reported.
The NBP will continue to take all necessary actions to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability, including, above all, maintaining inflation at a level consistent with the NBP inflation target in the medium term. The National Bank of Poland may intervene in the currency market, it was declared.
