Putin has gained enormous self-confidence. So much so that publicly threatened the European Union on state television. “Now other markets are opening up. Perhaps it would be more profitable for us to immediately stop deliveries to the European market. In any case, I will instruct the government to work on this issue together with our enterprises,” he said.
Russia is internationally condemned for the war in Ukraine, and numerous sanctions (including those regarding raw materials such as oil) and embargoes significantly weaken the country. Now suddenly there is a solution for the Kremlin. Moscow intends to exploit this opportunity ruthlessly.
One of the goals may be even more intensive trade with China. According to Natalia Khabarovskaya, an expert on Russia and China at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, since the war in Ukraine economic cooperation between Russia and China has deepened significantly.
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China remains the most important supporter of Putin's war and one of the last major buyers of Russian oil. The unstable situation in the Middle East now threatens to cause more countries to switch to Russian oil, thus financing Putin and his war machine.
– says EU trade expert Svenja Hahn (vice-chairman of the FDP and chairwoman of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe) in an interview with “Bild”.
Johannes Peters, head of maritime strategy and security at the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel, supports this thesis. — Russian oil is becoming more attractive again due to price increases and shortages, he emphasizes.
No Russian oil or gas from the Persian Gulf states can be compensated on the world market. Russian calculations are probably as follows: countries will ignore sanctions to have enough energy
– adds the analyst.
Sanctions are losing their importance
And this includes, among others: countries from South America (e.g. Brazil) or Africa (primarily South Africa). — European countries such as Hungary and Austria that did not support the sanctions very enthusiastically may rebel, Peters says. Budapest and Vienna may think that why should they buy expensive energy if the sanctions no longer harm Russia anyway?
— Western energy sanctions are losing importance. Russia's state budget is financed by energy exports – and therefore its war industry, fears a security expert. This way Putin could benefit from Donald Trump's attack.
Iran is playing a Russian trick
Iran attacks its enemies with drones – just like Russia does Ukraine. The Persian Gulf countries neutralize them with expensive missiles that may soon run out. Everything indicates that these countries will knock on Europe's door and ask for help.
Since Saturday's U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Tehran has responded with attacks. In recent days, a hail of cruise missiles, drones and precision bombs have hit US bases, oil infrastructure and civilian buildings. On Monday, Iran Shahid-136 combat drones again attacked targets in the Middle East.
War in the Persian Gulf is already a struggle for resources, the outcome of which may ultimately depend on economic factors. However, this does not automatically mean that the victory of the West and its allies is certain. Gaps in the region's air defense may prompt regional countries to push for a quick end to the conflict. Or putting additional pressure on Europeans to get involved in the conflict.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
