The Monetary Policy Council lowered interest rates on Tuesday. “The Monetary Policy Council's message regarding the decision to cut sounds mild,” say economists from ING Bank Śląski. In turn, mBank economists emphasize that the statement does not suggest a “wait and see”, which in such a situation signals clear approval for further cuts.
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As they note, what attracts attention is the paragraph mentioning the dynamics of wages, which were “clearly lower than in the previous month.” The fragment mentioning a “further decline in employment” also draws attention.
The reference to Iran in the MPC statement is laconic. The Council mentions commodity prices, inflation and geopolitical tensions.
“Further decisions of the Council will depend on the incoming information regarding the outlook for inflation and economic activity,” we read in the statement. The risk factors for the inflation outlook include: macroeconomic situation abroad, including changes in commodity prices and global inflation in the context of geopolitical tensions.
We may learn more details about the decision on Thursday during the conference of the President of the National Bank of Poland.
“There were basically no major changes in the announcement itself. Of course, there was a mention of the geopolitical situation, because it had to be like that, but nothing more. The lack of any suggestion of 'wait and see' in such a situation in the announcement signals a clear approval for (further) cuts,” mBank economists say.
See also: What awaits Poland in the next three years? The National Bank of Poland revealed the latest forecasts
MPC statement
“The prices of energy raw materials have recently increased. In turn, the prices of agricultural raw materials remain significantly lower than a year earlier. The outlook for activity and inflation in the world is subject to uncertainty, in particular in connection with the geopolitical situation,” we read in the statement.
As the Council notes, CPI inflation – after a decline during 2025 – according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office, decreased again in January 2026 (to 2.2% from 2.4% in December 2025). The Monetary Policy Council got acquainted with the latest NBP projection.
The MPC lists risk factors for inflation.
“Taking into account inflation developments and its prospects in the coming quarters, in the Council's opinion, it has become justified to adjust the level of NBP interest rates. Further decisions of the Council will depend on the incoming information regarding the prospects for inflation and economic activity,” we read in the statement.
“The risk factors for the inflation outlook remain the shape of fiscal policy, the expected recovery in demand in the economy, further developments in wage dynamics and the macroeconomic situation abroad, including changes in commodity prices and global inflation in the context of geopolitical tensions,” we read further.
