How to explain Iran's strategy in the war with the US and Israel: the important change adopted by Tehran after last year's 12-day war
The Islamic Republic is launching constant barrages of missiles at Israel, while also targeting civilian targets in the Gulf, with the aim of exhausting air defenses and widening the war and its stakes for the US and Israel, say experts cited by the Financial Times and Al Jazeera.
After last year's war, when it launched massive waves of missiles and drones at Israel, Iran recalibrated its retaliation doctrine, adopting a more constant campaign of launches aimed at exhausting air defenses.
At the same time, Tehran is using short-range missiles and drones for intensive attacks on US allies in the Gulf, targeting civilian infrastructure as well as US military bases.
On both fronts, it is trying to use up its least valuable ammunition first, while exhausting adversaries' interceptors and disrupting normal life in the region, writes the Financial Times.
Since Saturday, the regime has launched ballistic missiles and drones “in more than 25 waves” against targets in Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq. Israeli officials said their country had been targeted by smaller salvos than in the previous conflict, but at a more constant rate.
“We don't know where the Iranians will end up, but this (war) probably won't be measured in hours or days,” a former Israeli security official was quoted as saying by the Financial Times.
Political calculations could lead Iran to escalate “hard, fast and early” attacks against the Gulf states, Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, also told the financial newspaper.
“If they create a serious enough crisis, they believe they can get US partners in the region to help stop any Israeli or US operations against Iran,” he said.
Tehran uses the less advanced missiles first
At this point, Iran appears to be using its least advanced missiles first in an attempt to wear out American and Israeli interceptors, saving its more advanced missiles for a later stage of the conflict.
Video footage from a street in Doha, Qatar, showed what experts described as a relatively unsophisticated liquid-fueled missile landing on a street after an apparent interception and exploding in a giant fireball.
“They are aware that interceptors like Thaad, Arrow and David's Sling are extremely expensive and take years to build up,” Robert Campbell, a former major and air weapons specialist in the British Army, told the Financial Times, referring to the US and Israeli systems.
Despite the desire to conserve ammunition, Iran also faces pressure to launch the missiles before Iranian launchers are destroyed on the ground.
Another video shot by an eyewitness also showed what appeared to be a Shahed-136 – a rudimentary, mass-produced Iranian drone that has been used to devastating effect by Russia in Ukraine – striking a US naval base in the Juffair district of Bahrain's capital Manama, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.
“I am surprised and concerned that the US Navy headquarters in Bahrain was hit by a Shahed drone, which is basically a toy plane,” Campbell said.
Renewed Arsenal
Iran has spent the months since last year's 12-day war renewing its arsenal and modernizing its missiles.
The IDF said Tehran used more than 500 rockets against Israel during the 2025 war, of which nearly 90 percent were intercepted, while several hundred others were destroyed on the ground.
Israeli intelligence assessments found that Iran's arsenal had risen to 2,500 ballistic missiles again at the start of the current conflict.
Most ballistic and cruise missiles today rely on multiple guidance systems to ensure they bypass GPS jamming. The most advanced missiles use optical guidance, with cameras or image sensors on board that help guide them to a target.
In Iran's inventory, only a few missiles, such as the solid-propellant Haj Qasem and Qassem Bassir, are listed as having this technology. The former apparently hit the Haifa refinery last June, and the latter was not used in the previous war.
Iran's other top missiles emphasize payload more than accuracy. The largest missile, the Khorramshahr, can carry a two-ton payload, potentially compensating for inaccuracy with destructive power.
Other advanced missiles used last year include the solid-fuel Fattah-1 and the two-stage solid-fuel Sejjil.
Raising the stakes of the conflict
The current conflict also has much higher stakes for Iran. Unlike the 2025 war, Khamenei's killing appears to have convinced Tehran that this conflict is a fight for the survival of the Islamic Republic.
In Tehran's view, a delayed or moderate response risks being perceived as weakness and an invitation to new attacks, writes Al Jazeera.
On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said revenge for the killing of Khamenei and other senior officials was the country's “legitimate duty and right”.
Attacks on the Gulf states are part of this doctrine. On the one hand, these attacks target US and Israeli allies and partners, US military bases, and US interests.
On the other hand, the attacks generate chaos and instability, raising the stakes of the conflict.
Iran's deterrence strategy is not limited to land targets. The Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world's traded oil and gas passes, provide Tehran with a quick way to shake up global markets. Tehran has not formally closed the strait, but naval traffic has been drastically reduced anyway.
On Monday, the effects of the war's expansion are already visible. The airspace of the Gulf states is closed, hundreds of thousands of travelers who were in the area are prisoners on the ground.
At the same time, the price of oil suddenly increased by almost 10%.
