In November, midterm elections will be held in the USA – Americans will choose the House of Representatives, as well as 1/3 of the Senate. A Democratic victory would significantly weaken the White House's influence. The usually confident US president remained reserved in the context of the upcoming vote.
Quoted fragment of the program:
The experiences of earlier so-called mid-term elections, indicate that many presidents lost support and their party lost the elections. Trump alludes to this himself.
“When you win the presidential election, you don't win the midterm elections,” he recently admitted in an interview with Reuters, pointing to the historical experience in the US. At the same time, he declared to fight. We will try very hard to win it,” he said.
According to data from RealClearPolitics and the New York Times, approval for the president averaged 43-44 percent in January, with disapproval at 55-56 percent. At the same time, Democrats improved their performance in New York, New Jersey and Virginia in last year's midterm elections.
Americanist Dr. Wojciech Kwiatkowski in Onet Morning Finansowo points out that the decline in support is not an anomaly, but rather fits into historical trends. He reminds that this is a common phenomenon in the first years of office. — In the first year, when a president makes a lot of politically incorrect decisions, especially a president like Trump, support wanes. This is completely normal – says the expert.
Donald Trump
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Donald Trump's controversial decisions
As Kwiatkowski points out, subsequent military interventions – last year's attack on Iran or the recent actions in Venezuela – turn out to be difficult for voters from the MAGA movement to swallow. Although the operation, which ended with the capture of Nicolás Maduro without any losses, was assessed positively by a large part of the USA (according to a USA Today survey, 48% supported the action against 52% against), among MAGA supporters, it raised doubts about the “America First” campaign slogans.
Kwiatkowski draws attention to the significant division within Republicans. — Even what happened less than two weeks ago in Venezuela is already perceived by some Trump supporters as a betrayal of the ideals and slogans that were expressed. Of course, many Republican Party supporters like it too. Such a move, like a sheriff in the Old West – they come in, kidnap the president and no American soldier dies – only advantages. But there are also those who see this as the beginning of a certain tendency, that Trump promised one thing and something else is happening now, he says.
Will US tariffs be withdrawn?
And even more problematic for Trump may be his tariff policy — a key pillar of his second term. The Supreme Court is preparing to rule on the constitutionality of tariffs imposed under the Presidential Emergency Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA). Both conservative and liberal judges showed skepticism of the administration's arguments during the hearing.
Chief Justice John Roberts explicitly stated that tariffs, even if justified by security issues, are in a sense “taxes imposed on Americans” and therefore should be the domain of Congress. At the same time, Justice Amy Coney Barrett questioned why countries like Spain and France should be targeted for retaliation.
If the Supreme Court rules against the president, it could force his administration to repay billions of dollars. Trump has already warned that in such a situation the United States will be “DONE” – these are his words from the Truth Social platform. This would be a defeat that could affect the fate of the midterm elections, and at the same time it would bring the issue to Parliament.
Congress will decide everything?
If the Supreme Court challenges Trump's tariff powers, the only saving grace will be Congress, an institution that today is controlled only by a slim majority. Republicans have 220 seats in the House of Representatives (218 needed) and 53 seats in the Senate.
Democrats need just three seats to take control of the House and four of the Senate. The history of the last midterm elections in 2018, when Trump lost 41 seats, is not optimistic.
— If the Republican Party loses the midterm elections, they may decide that the president will be elected after 2026. he will be a lame duck – Kwiatkowski predicts. At the same time he adds that Trump will try to circumvent Congress through presidential executive orders, but his options are limited.
Undocumented immigrants also won't be able to be deported on the scale Trump promised without legislative support. It is also impossible to change the foundations of the tax system. — And if the Democrats manage to take over even one chamber, they will push such ideas and propose “instruments” into various bills that will make it even more difficult for Trump to explain his decisions to voters – says the expert.
Trump would either have to come to terms with the Democrats, which could irritate his electorate and hamper the Republicans' 2028 campaign, or on the other hand, the Democrats would use every opportunity to block his initiatives.
Onet Morning. Financially
“Onet Rano. Finansowo” is a weekly program in which Business Insider journalists talk to invited experts from the world of business and politics about current events and issues related to the Polish economy, public finances and the impact of politics on the wallets of every Pole.
The program can be watched every Wednesday at 10 on the main page of the Onet portal, and from 11 as a podcast on Onet Audio.
