In the first scenario, they assume a quick resumption of talks and an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. In such a case Iranian oil could widely return to the market and the price of a barrel could drop below $60.
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Attack on Iran and questions about Donald Trump's attitude
The second variant was called “TACO”, i.e. “Trump Always Chickens Out”. In this scenario, there would be a lull in rhetoric without a full-scale war, but also without a breakthrough agreement. Oil prices could then drop to around $60.
The third scenario assumes limited military actions by the US and Israel and a moderate response from Tehran. In such a situation, the price of a barrel could increase to USD 80-90, after which – as the tension decreases – there would be a correction.
Worst case scenario: threat to the Strait of Hormuz and panic
The most pessimistic variant is a long-term escalation and a threat to the transport of raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key oil export routes in the world. Such a development could cause panic in the markets and increase prices to as much as USD 100-150. per barrel.
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Such a high price level would mean unplanned additional income for fuel exporters. Norway, which after the Russian aggression against Ukraine became the main supplier of gas to Europe, has earned an additional approximately USD 300 billion since 2022 thanks to the increase in oil and gas prices.
Harald Magnus Andreassen, chief economist at Sparebank 1 Markets, warned, however, that record increases in oil and gas prices will not be beneficial for producers in the long run. “The world economy is much more than fuel prices. If the conflict with Iran is prolonged, it will have a clearly negative impact on global growth,” concluded Andreassen.
