The inflow of immigrants from Ukraine not only did not burden the economy, but also became one of the key stabilizers of the aging labor market and economic growth.
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According to data from Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, in 2024 the contribution of Ukrainian employees to Polish GDP was estimated at 2.7%, or PLN 98.7 billion. This is more than the annual budget of the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of National Education combined. Without this impulse, Poland's economic growth rate would be significantly lower.
Ukrainian citizens constitute over 66 percent. foreigners legally working in Poland. Their mass departure would mean a decline in the competitiveness of Polish companies, lower tax revenues and deepening staffing problems, says Nadia Winiarska, a migration expert.
Paralysis in industry, transport and services
From 22 to 25 percent Ukrainians employed in Poland (approx. 190 thousand people) work in industry and processing. Without them, many plants would have to limit or stop production. 12 percent work in transport and logistics. Ukrainian citizens – approx. 100 thousand people. Their absence would mean disruption of supply chains, problems with exports and supplying stores.
In turn, in the hotel and catering industry, Ukrainians constitute approximately 14 percent. all employees, and in construction – 13 percent. The disappearance of these workers would translate into mass closures of companies and delays in infrastructure and housing investments.
— Without the presence of Ukrainian citizens, the Polish labor market would be in a much worse condition today. Staff shortages resulting from demographics would directly impact the ability of companies to maintain production and services, emphasizes Nadia Winiarska.
Professional advancement of Poles
The presence of Ukrainians triggered the mechanism of professional advancement of Polish employees. Immigrants took over largely manual and simple jobs, often below their qualifications, which allowed Poles to move to more specialized and better-paid professions.
As calculated by Deloitte and UNHCR experts, in counties where the share of Ukrainian workers increased by one percentage point, Poles' wages grew faster – by an additional PLN 66-132. At the same time, the unemployment rate there was 0.3 percentage points lower and the employment rate higher by 0.5 percentage points.
These data challenge the popular myth of “job taking.” The economy has benefited from specialization and increased productivity. Without migration, some Poles would have to return to simpler, less efficient tasks, which would reduce the rate of wage growth and the productivity of the entire economy.
Over PLN 5 in payments for every zloty of benefits
Contrary to popular belief, immigrants from Ukraine are not a burden on the social system. For every zloty paid under the 800+ program, an average of PLN 5.4 is paid to the budget in the form of taxes and contributions. In 2024, Ukrainian employees generated approximately PLN 15.1 billion in budget revenues, while the value of benefits amounted to approximately PLN 2.8 billion.
Without these 854 thousand payers of ZUS contributions, the pension system would come under even greater pressure. The public finance deficit would increase and pressure to increase the retirement age or reduce benefits would be difficult to avoid.
Read also: This is the highest pension in Poland. The senior has worked for 67 years
Demography and the problem of pensions
Poland is aging rapidly. Currently, there are 29 people of retirement age per 100 people of working age. Without migration, this indicator would increase to 45 as early as 2033.
To maintain the current level of demographic burden, Poland needs approximately 2.6 million immigrants within a decade – that is, 265,000. annually. Currently working Ukrainian citizens cover only one third of this demand.
Ukrainians – mostly of working age and children who will enter the labor market in the future – are slowing down the process of aging labor resources. Their absence would mean the need for deep reforms of the pension system.
Read also: The labor market in Poland under the microscope of the Central Statistical Office. Check where the number of employees is decreasing
Growing risk of staff shortages
The stability that immigrants provide today is fragile. Research by the Polish Economic Institute shows that only 4 out of 10 immigrants from Ukraine have a high probability of staying in Poland permanently. The remaining 60 percent is in a “transitional” phase – they are here by necessity, not by choice.
The most important factor determining whether they will stay here is the legal stability of their stay – it is even more important than the salary. Safety, family ties and career development prospects are also crucial.
— The planned expiration of the special act stabilizes the situation only partially. There are no solutions to protect the status of posted workers and efficient residence procedures. The risk of losing status after leaving Poland for more than 30 days may negatively impact migrants' decisions, warns Nadia Winiarska.
If conditions in Poland cease to be competitive or the war ends, up to 650,000 people may disappear from the labor market. employees. This would mean a return to the personnel crisis from a decade ago – but in conditions of much worse demographics and without alternative sources of labor.
