75-year-old General Zhang Youxia was a veteran of the ground forces and until now was considered a close ally of the Chinese leader. His fall was a political earthquake – in the state military commission he was the last member of the top management from the previous round to remain in office. The remaining key commanders from the original squad had already been removed as part of the unprecedented purges that have been carried out in the Chinese army for several months.
What happened to General Zhang Youxia?
What changes have occurred in the Chinese army?
Why did Xi Jinping introduce purges in the army?
What might the effects of changes in the Chinese military be on Taiwan?
“If Xi Jinping gets bad advice, that's risk number one.”
As “NYT” pointed out, Xi will have to find a way to finalize the army modernization plan, which is to be implemented by 2027. Moreover, this date has been indicated by part of the American intelligence community as the moment when China achieves combat capability allowing it to invade Taiwan.
According to former CIA analyst John Culver, who is now an expert at the Brookings Institution, Xi concluded that the army had failed to achieve its goals. He added that this could delay plans for a military operation, including the takeover of Taiwan. According to Culver, the effects of changes in the army are already visible. The expert points to some of the regular military exercises that have probably been postponed.
“If Xi Jinping gets bad advice, if he miscalculates due to the fault of toadies who tell him only what (Xi) wants to hear, not what he should hear, that is risk number one,” said former Pentagon official Drew Thompson, who hosted General Zhang in the US in 2012 together with Chinese military officers. In his opinion, the new leadership in the army, which will probably consist of loyalists, may not have the courage to present the leader with a realistic assessment of the situation.
“NYT”, citing analysts, suggested that perhaps the conflict between Xi and Zhang concerned the manner of carrying out reforms in the army. In China's leadership circles, “small disputes can become large,” Thompson noted.
Nevertheless, the daily noted that new commanders were appointed in December, including: commander of the Eastern Theater, responsible for Taiwan. Just a week later, extremely aggressive maneuvers were carried out around Taiwan. According to the newspaper, this may be a signal from the Chinese authorities that – despite reshuffles in key command positions – the armed forces of the Middle Kingdom can still be effective.
