What happened was what most probably predicted would happen, given the US president's past threats on various occasions. There will be no tariffs on eight European countries, Greenland will not be taken by force, i.e. TACO in its full glory, and it turned out that behind-the-scenes work is underway in Davos to achieve peace in Ukraine. The mixture served by Donald Trump caused demand to return to the WSE with a bang.
Investors enthusiastically welcomed Donald Trump's speech at the Economic Forum in Davos. The cancellation of the threat of punitive tariffs on European countries lifted the burden on the markets that had been weighing since the beginning of the week. “Yesterday's softening of the stance of the American administration made the market breathe a sigh of relief,” wrote Arkadiusz Banaś, an analysis expert in the Analysis and Consulting Team of Alior Bank, in a comment for PAP Biznes.
TACO worked again
The pattern sarcastically called “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) was again implemented, suggesting that after a series of threats, the American leader is finally making concessions.
“Investors' attention remains focused on geopolitical issues (another day of the Davos Forum, extraordinary EU Summit, inauguration of the Peace Council), macroeconomic publications (reports on American spending for October and November, including PCE inflation index readings) and publications of quarterly results of American companies (including Intel, General Electric and Procter & Gamble),” added Banaś. .
Polish economy with a strong message
It is worth adding that on Thursday, the Central Statistical Office published a good package of data from the Polish economy, with increasingly growing wages, which may make the scenario of a strong consumer in 2026 more likely, and in addition, industrial production has rebounded strongly from the November low, and solid growth was also shown in construction and assembly production.
If foreign investors looked at the foundations of the Polish economy today, it could undoubtedly make a very good impression on them. And why today should managers from Wall Street or Citi London monitor data appearing with problems on the Central Statistical Office website?
As usual, the chances for peace whet investor appetites
As usual, the interest of foreign capital increases when the issue of peace in Ukraine returns to the agenda. This time she returned during the talks in Davos. Donald Trump said on Thursday that his envoys will meet with Vladimir Putin today or tomorrow. When asked about his message to Putin, he replied: – The war must end.
Moreover, foreign news agencies promoted a quote by Volodymyr Zelensky, who said that “documents aimed at ending the war in Ukraine are almost ready”, but he preceded it with words about the continuous work of the Ukrainian and US teams on the peace framework, which is not that simple.
Poland, as a frontline country, could primarily benefit from the removal of systemic risk. On the other hand, looking at the returns of the main WSE indices for the last three years, it is scary to think where they would be today, without taking into account the fact that there is a war going on across the eastern border.
Session results on the WSE
All this resulted in the second best WIG20 session (2.42%) this year, after the first session on January 2 (2.46%). At the same time, the blue chip index raised the bullish record to 3,341.95 points, a level not seen since the beginning of 2008. On Monday, WIG was the highest in history (123,631.17 points) after an increase of 2.29%. at the end of the session. mWIG40 (2.17%) also holds the record (8,748.83 points), which was achieved at the end of the year. No record, but sWIG80 landed close to it after an increase of 1.36%. To confirm the involvement of foreign capital, let us recall the turnover statistics: PLN 2.87 billion on the broad market, of which PLN 2.43 billion concerned WIG20, over PLN 317 million mWIG40, and nearly PLN 92.5 million sWIG80.
Almost all green in WIG20, apart from declines in CCC (-1.84%) and KGHM (-2%), which was affected by the correction of metal prices, especially silver. The undisputed star of the session was Orlen, whose shares increased by 6.12%, to approximately PLN 105. The company from Płock was supported not only by better moods, but also by the situation on the energy raw materials market – gas prices in Europe have increased by 40% since the beginning of January, and gas has been the driving force of the company's profits in recent years.
Almost exactly 4 percent. Pekao shares gained, and PGE (3.74%), mBank (3.46%), and PKO (3.23%) grew significantly in WIG20. Of the rising 18th WIG20 index prices, Kęty recorded the smallest increase (0.99%), which in itself proves the demand for shares of large companies from the WSE.
Among smaller companies, Asbis attracted attention, gaining 6.46%. following the publication of impressive revenue estimates for December ($525 million, up 36%). Creotech Instruments rose by 7.82%. The company announced the success of the launch phase of all satellites of the PIAST constellation. In turn, Trakcja (5.49%) reported that the update of contract budgets increased its gross result by PLN 49.3 million. With great sentiment, there were more clear increases, including many without new information, such as Ten Square Games (5.97%), Polimex (5.58%), or Torpol (6.56%). A total of 19 courses recorded at least one-year highs.
According to the calculations of the Bankier.pl fear and greed index, greed was already visible on the WSE after Wednesday's session. This index takes into account 6 different components, which we describe here.
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