The deal of the century at Romania's border: “It would be a shame to miss the moment.” The plan proposed by Armand Goșu for the reconstruction of Ukraine

Historian Armand Goșu, an expert in the former Soviet space, explains, in an analysis for “Adevărul”, what role Romania could have in the reconstruction process of Ukraine and talks about the advantages and disadvantages of the authorities in Bucharest.

Ukraine is largely in ruins and will have to be rebuilt from the ground up. PHOTO: EPA EFE

Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine continue in the US-Russia format, respectively the US-Ukraine format. However, the representatives of the two belligerent countries have not officially sat down at the negotiation table, face to face, after the attempt in Istanbul, in the spring of 2022.

Even so, hope is alive and the war could end as early as this year if Ukraine and Russia reach a common denominator and find a way to make some concessions. But no armistice or even peace signed between the two countries will bring an end to tensions and solve the problems between them.

Hundreds of billions of euros at stake for the reconstruction of Ukraine

One of the main post-conflict challenges will be the reconstruction of Ukraine. The reality on the ground shows that our neighbors to the North would need a real Marshall Plan, given that the country is practically destroyed, and the infrastructure has to be rebuilt in many parts from scratch. That's hundreds of billions of euros, and estimates are that it would take between 500 and 800 billion euros to rebuild Ukraine and get it back on its feet.

Until it becomes clear where these resources will come from and with what amounts the European Union and other states will contribute, important companies from the West are already making their battle plan and preparing for the moment when they will be able to officially enter the Ukrainian market. In principle, the most advantageous will be the construction companies, but also the consortia and investment funds that will lend to Kyiv. On the other hand, Ukraine's neighboring countries, especially Poland and Romania, should normally have an important role, given the proximity.

Why Romania matters in the equation

Historian Armand Goșu, an expert in the former Soviet space, explains for “Adevărul”, what could be the role played by Romania at the end of the war, even by the simple fact that we have the longest common border with Ukraine.

The expert believes that Romania's role will be essential, especially if Ukraine manages to impose its point of view at the end of the war and obtain favorable conditions.

“Romania will be essential in the scenario of a Western victory in Ukraine. In fact, the Russians say that they are fighting the West, and in the end I think, in a way they are also right. Because, in fact, if it were not for the West, Ukraine would have collapsed. As for Romania, we are among the most important. It must be taken into account that many aids for Ukraine are and will be passing through here. Basically, half of them could pass through here. And there will be a lot of money”says Armand Goșu.

The limits of Romania in the process of reconstruction of Ukraine

However, Armand Goșu does not believe that Romania will succeed in having its own projects in Ukraine. The lack of expertise of the Romanian authorities and companies will have their say, so Romania will only have the role of a hub.

“There will be important resources mobilized, but that does not mean that there will be Romanian projects, because to do something like that there you have to know, you have to know the language, you have to… We don't know them well, we don't know them at all. They, the Ukrainians, I'm sure they look at us well, because the Romanians have a very good press there after February 2022, taking into account that we treated them well and helped them. Civil society in Romania, as little as he behaved very well with the Ukrainian refugees. Of course, there are very few of them left. There is a language barrier, a lack of mutual knowledge, but the Ukrainians, as few as are left, testify that the Romanians behaved admirably with them.” says Goșu.

Armand Gosu. PHOTO: The truth

He draws a parallel between the way Romania treated the Poles in 1939 and the way the Ukrainians were treated in recent years. At the beginning of the First World War, after their country was torn apart and divided between Nazi Germany and the former Soviet Union, the Poles turned to Romania for help, and Bucharest did not disappoint.

“We behaved well with the Ukrainians, just as we did with the Poles in 1939. If you go and talk to the Poles, they will say that the Romanians welcomed them with open arms, that they helped them, that they saved them. They transited through Romania, then they arrived in America, they arrived in Great Britain. The military, the Polish civilian population who took refuge after Hitler launched the invasion of Poland, many of them they tried to escape here, through Romania. That's how we behaved with the Ukrainian refugees, so we have a good image in their country, and we could, with the good press we have there, play a certain role, but rather a role of transit, because we don't know enough about the politics in Ukraine, nor their culture, nor their language.”claims Armand Goșu.

What can Romania do?

Even so, Romania could contribute, according to its powers, to the reconstruction and revival of Ukraine. It will be a huge effort, but one that will be worth it in every way.

“Not knowing these things, about the realities in Ukraine, but having the advantage of the geographical position, we can participate with others in the upliftment of Ukraine. When I say this, I think that they could make some deposits on Romanian territory in the first phase. And some Western businessmen should leave here for the Odesa area, from here and Chisinau, or from Iasi and Chisinau. In this sense, there are huge opportunities that it would be a shame for Romanian business to I repeat, not playing here as a soloist,
British, French or Danish, or by others. But it would be a shame to miss the moment, it's a good opportunity”, points out professor Armand Goșu.

However, there are other scenarios, and the worst would be the collapse of Ukraine. If the front was broken and the Russians could no longer be stopped, things would change.

“I hope and believe that Ukraine will hold on. It would be a very bad scenario for us if it falls. Likewise for Moldovans. If Odesa falls, Chisinau also falls. Similarly, if Ukraine falls, Romania will feel very bad. It is not a desirable scenario”emphasizes Armand Goșu.

In which direction the war and negotiations are heading

Regarding the peace negotiations and their results, Armand Goșu believes that the results are unpredictable, but he is fundamentally skeptical. All the more so as although scenarios such as the German and Korean ones are being discussed, the expert does not see them as applicable in Ukraine.

“I suppose that at some point there will be some kind of agreement, but that it will be even less than an armistice, even if it is signed and even if there are certain guarantees. This agreement, as I see it, will be short-lived and last even less than the Minsk agreements. However, we saw that the agreements from Minsk quickly became a dead letter, because they were interpreted differently in Kiev and in Moscow”predicts Professor Goșu.

This is not the only option. There would also be others under discussion. Armand Goșu believes that the war could continue for months or even years.

“There is also the option that the war will continue with a lower intensity, because neither Volodymyr Zelensky nor Vladimir Putin, at the moment, has no breath left. Both are panting and must find a pretext to suspend hostilities at least for a period of time, in the hope that after that, of course, a favorable context will be created to continue“, adds the expert.

The worst option for Ukraine and Romania

The worst option, but perhaps also the most plausible, would be for Russia to continue to blatantly sabotage any peace project. Just as he is doing now, Putin can reject any peace offer and choose to continue the war. It's a scenario all the more to consider as Russia continues to be on the offensive and has captured several Ukrainian cities in recent months. In such a situation, Putin would have been advised by some generals to continue, receiving assurances that his army would inevitably break through the front and that the only unknown was when this might happen.

“We have, of course, the option that Putin will say no and refuse any truce. The Russians could continue the inertia war with the same intensity as before. The Russians launched a major offensive around May of last year, hoping that Ukraine would collapse, that Kiev would capitulate. This is the ideal scenario for Putin, but the worst for Europe, the worst for us and Ukraine. Obviously, Putin and his people will the collapse of Ukraine, they want a capitulation of Ukraine, and as long as they believe they can win on the front, they can continue with the hope that later he will come and he will impose the terms of armistice and peace”, Professor Armand Goșu concludes.