After the US warned of a possible attack on Iran, Arab countries reportedly indicated to the US administration in private communications that an attempt to overthrow the Iranian regime would shock oil markets and ultimately harm the US economy.
They fear the consequences most at home.
In particular, Arab states fear that strikes on Iran could disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf that separates Iran from its Arab neighbors and through which about a fifth of the world's oil supplies pass.
Riyadh assured Tehran that it would not participate in a possible conflict and would not allow the United States to use its airspace to carry out strikes.
The Trump administration has not made it clear what type of military action it is planning against Iran, however, according to WSJ interlocutors, Washington has said that the likelihood of a strike is higher than its absence.
Context
On December 28, 2025, massive anti-government protests began in Iran amid economic problems in the country. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called the protesters “rebels” and called for a crackdown on the demonstrations. Clashes arose between protesters and law enforcement officers, which, as Reuters wrote, became the bloodiest in the last three years.
On January 2, Trump threatened to intervene if peaceful protests in Iran were suppressed. On January 10, the Iranian army announced its readiness to join in the suppression of protests in the country. Iran's Prosecutor General threatened to execute protesters. On the same day, Trump said that the United States was ready to come to the aid of Iran.
On January 10, the WSJ wrote that the United States was discussing a possible strike on Iran. On January 12, Axios reported that Trump was leaning towards this, but had not made a final decision and was studying Iranian proposals for negotiations.
The media wrote on January 13 that 12 thousand protesters died in Iran, most in three days.
On the same day, Trump wrote a post in which he supported protesters in Iran, calling them “Iranian patriots.” The US President called on them to “continue to protest and take over their institutions.” “Help is on the way,” Trump added.
