According to the latest available ARE data in the first three quarters lignite power plantsthat gave last year 19.2 percent energy in the Polish power system incurred the cost of PLN 2.6 billion for the purchase of CO2 emission allowances. That's 27.1 percent. less year on year with a decrease in electricity production by 5.7%. year to year. However, the result of the lignite power plant on electricity production was negative (loss) and amounted to as much as PLN 2.7 billion..
On the other hand hard coal power plantswhich produced 32.7% in 2025. electricity in Poland, incurred in the first three quarters cost of purchasing allowances PLN 9.5 billioni.e. by 22.9 percent. less year-on-year, with a decrease in electricity production by 2.3%. The loss on electricity amounted to PLN 4.4 billion.
With the losses of coal-fired power plants, these for gas in three quarters of 2025 they had profit on electricity PLN 506 million, and their sales increased by 56%. to PLN 6.9 billion with an increase in production by 59%. up to 9.9 TWh.
CO2 emission rights most expensive from 2023.
The comparison of the decrease in the cost of CO2 with the reduction in electricity production shows how important the price of emission rights is for coal-fired power plants. In the case of lignite power plants, the expenditure on allowances is practically the entire loss of this type of units, and in the case of hard coal power plants, if it were not for the expenditure on emission allowances, it would result in a profit of PLN 5.1 billion for the power plants. It would also give more time for the energy transformation, or rather… these power plants they are suitable for closing because you have to add money to them. During the PiS government, there was a plan for the state to take it over (NABE), but ultimately nothing came of it.
All the above data comes from the time when the price of CO2 emission allowances was between EUR 73 and EUR 78 per tonne. This is unfortunately no longer valid. At the first auction this year on the EEX exchange the price of allowances was as much as EUR 86.27 and this is the highest level since August 2023, i.e. for almost two and a half years. At the same time, they are 21 percent more expensive year on year.
This means that not only were Polish coal-fired power plants already operating at a loss, but these losses will increase significantly. Energy groups have a strong incentive to get rid of coal assets as quickly as possible. If they were not mostly state-owned and the government did not force them to be responsible for the entire economy, private owners would have already forced their management boards to liquidate them. Just like the ZE PAK Group, which belongs to the “Solorz group”, did.
Solorz's group rolls coal
ZE PAK's revenues from the sale of energy from its own production decreased by 38%. y/y in nine months of 2025 with an increase in the production of sold energy by 11%. y/y to 1.07 TWh. “The increase in the volume of electricity concerned only own production from unit 9 (Pątnów II Power Plant). Units 1, 2 and 5 were turned off at the end of 2024.“- explains the company.
Unit 9 is the most modern in the power plant and the largest (474 MW). It was launched in 2007 and is based on the technology of supercritical lignite combustion parameters, which ensures high efficiency of 44%. gross. Its construction cost 580 million euros. It is scheduled to be phased out in mid-2026. Then, ZE PAK will no longer produce energy from coal. He will lose his job, among others. almost 80 percent crews in mines.
In its place, ZE PAK's assets will include a 562 MW gas unit in the third quarter of 2027 (9.3% of the current gas capacity in Poland). CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) Adamów in Turekwhose expected operational life is 25 years. In addition, ZE PAK is building a wind farm consisting of 130 turbines with a capacity of approximately 500 MW (4.7% of the current wind capacity in Poland), which is to start production in 2030.
As for gas, even apart from the power plants' income from the capacity market, after the high increase in the ETS tax, it turns out to be a much cheaper form of energy production in Poland than coal. Let's estimate how much cheaper it is.
Gas already provides much cheaper energy than coal
Not only have the prices of CO2 allowances increased, but also gas has become significantly cheaper. The price per megawatt hour in Europe is already below EUR 28 in contracts for February. And gas emits 42 percent less. less CO2 per MWh of energy produced.
Quotations of Dutch gas contracts
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Investing.com
We have estimated how much cheaper gas is currently in electricity production, after the increase in CO2 rights to over EUR 86 per tonne, with the known efficiency of power plants in Poland due to the fuel used and with the prices of coal and gas.
Our data:
- CO2 price: EUR 86.27 per tonne,
- coal price PLN 336 per tonne for power plants (November data from ARP),
- the current price of European gas is EUR 27.685 per MWh in contracts for February this year,
- average efficiency of hard coal power plants 43.94%. gross (data from 2024 according to ARE) and gas power plants 66.44%,
- we also took into account the emission indicators of hard coal and gas per megawatt hour – gas emits 42% less CO2.
Estimates based on the above data show that the total raw material and emission cost of producing a megawatt-hour of electricity from hard coal is approximately PLN 252, and from gas – approximately PLN 188. Gas power plants currently produce electricity that is almost 26% cheaper. from coal to hard coal.
In the raw material and emission costs of producing electricity from gas, CO2 accounts for 26%, while in the case of hard coal it is as much as 68%. This translates into the possibility of making profits from such energy blocks.
Coal-fired power plants with high losses
According to our calculations based on ENTSO-E data, gas contributed 13.1% in 2025. electricity in Poland at 10.4 percent a year earlier, 8.1 percent two years earlier and 5.6 percent in 2022. The capacity installed in gas power plants increased by 7% during the year. up to 6 GW, and by 47 percent in two years.
It is this energy that we must focus on if we want to develop renewable energy and at the same time expand coal-based energy. Nothing helps balance fluctuations in the production of windmills or photovoltaics like flexible gas power plants, where production can be reduced and increased quite quickly.
Large nuclear power plants will not provide such comfort, and the situation will be different in the case of SMRs, according to the declaration of the management board of Respect Energy, which wants to build such power plants in Poland in the second half of the 2030s together with the French EdF. The proposed price is competitive and amounts to EUR 100 per MWh, and the technology is based on reactors used on submarines.
Author: Jacek Frączyk, editor of Business Insider Polska
