Rector of the Warsaw School of Economics: “Black swans” may come from across the Atlantic

“Black swans”, i.e. unpredictable phenomena causing crises, may come not only from the East, but also from across the Atlantic, told PAP professor and rector of the Warsaw School of Economics, Dr. Hab. Piotr Wachowiak. The antidote is to build the resilience of the economy.

As Professor SGH emphasized, all macroeconomic indicators show that the Polish economy was strengthening its position in 2025. In his opinion, Poland's promotion to the G20 is particularly important – the 20 largest economies in the world in terms of nominal GDP, which, according to the estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will exceed one trillion dollars.

Piotr Wachowiak noted that taking into account the geopolitical situation, and especially the reshuffles in the global system between the largest players, such as the United States, China and the European Union, we need to be extremely careful and vigilant.

– We live in times of uncertainty, which is worse than risk. Because while we are able to estimate the risk, when uncertainty comes into play, we are unable to estimate anything – said the rector of SGH. He added that the so-called Black swans, i.e. unpredictable phenomena causing crises and disasters, very often appear in times of uncertainty. – And what's worse, they can come from unpredictable directions – he pointed out.

In his opinion a “black swan” may appear not only from the East, but also, for example, from across the Atlantic.

– With all due respect to US President Donald Trump, it is currently difficult to predict what decisions he may make on key world issues, how he will treat Europe, China and Asia. The United States is a superpower, but given the president's unpredictability, it cannot be ruled out that swans will come from the United States and upend the world order. – he noticed.

In turn, when it comes to the economy of the European Union, including Poland, the threat is loss of competitiveness towards the American or Asian economies. “If this happens, we will face a decline in economic growth, an outflow of investments, and a deterioration in the standard of living,” Wachowiak noted. He pointed out that symptoms of this phenomenon can already be seen, for example, in the EU automotive industry or industries related to new technologies, including: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors and energy technologies.

According to the expert, Poland is at greater risk of losing competitiveness than, for example, France or the Scandinavian countries, due to lower expenditure on R&D and, above all, delays in the energy transformation. “If we do not reduce electricity prices, companies may move outside Europe,” he pointed out.

In Wachowiak's opinion “black swans” may also arrive with climate change. As he explained, this includes: about long-term droughts and violent weather phenomena, such as hurricanes or floods, which appear suddenly, causing huge losses. Therefore, it is necessary to take decisive actions to prevent climate change.

It may also become the cause of a potential crisis worsening demography. The aging of the population – as he said – is associated with rapidly growing costs related to care, treatment and pension expenses, but also with growing problems with recruiting employees. “This threatens to weaken the development capabilities of companies, which may have a negative impact on the economy. It may also translate into a decline in the wealth of society,” he warned.

Piotr Wachowiak admitted that it is currently impossible to reverse the demographic trend. He also does not see the possibility of raising the retirement age, which – as he stipulated – should happen. He pointed out that in order to avoid problems with employees, which may have a negative impact on the economy, Poland should introduce a responsible migration policy as soon as possible. One that, as he explained, “will encourage people with the competences we lack, who will quickly adapt to our cultural conditions, to come to Poland.”

Cybersecurity is also an area susceptible to the occurrence of a “black swan”.. According to the professor, it may be, for example, a massive hacker attack on key infrastructure, which will lead to the paralysis of the state. Another world-changing threat may be the bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble. The Rector pointed out that for the past two or three years, the prices of assets of companies developing artificial intelligence have been increasing disproportionately to their real value (measured, for example, by revenues and profitability), which reminds him of the burst of the subprime credit bubble in 2008 and the beginning of the global financial crisis.

The Rector emphasized that A characteristic feature of “black swans” is their unpredictability and unexpected appearance. – It is impossible to point out all of them, but to survive them, we need to build immunity – he emphasized. He recalled that this is the purpose of the European Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), created after the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and from which the Polish National Recovery and Resilience Plan (KPO) is financed.

Piotr Wachowiak believes that Poland, by using EU funds more effectively next year, should further stimulate economic growth, among others. launching public investments. As he explained, currently GDP growth is maintained mainly thanks to consumption, which may prove to be an insufficient stimulus in the face of the crisis. Moreover, building resilience requires investment in human capital because “this will make people more innovative, more creative, and thus contribute more effectively to building a strong, shock-resistant economy.”

According to the SGH rector, “white swans” stimulating economic growth may include: the end of the war in Ukraine, further reductions in interest rates provided that investments increase, or the continuation of the deregulation process, increasing the legal and fiscal stabilization of the country.

Ewa Wesołowska (PAP)

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