[AKTUALIZACJA] Sky News reported that the fund interested in purchasing the company is Advent International, which invested in InPost in 2017 and then sold part of its shares to the Czech investment company PPF. More here: British media report: here is a candidate for InPost
On Tuesday, InPost announced that it had received an initial proposal to take over all the company's shares. The company listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange has established a special team consisting of representatives of the supervisory board and management board, whose task will be to thoroughly analyze the potential transaction.
What does interest in InPost mean?
As Mikołaj Sobierajski, an XTB analyst, comments, the mere information that InPost received a preliminary, non-binding takeover proposal was enough to significantly stimulate the share price and improve the mood around the company.
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— The sharp price movement with increased volume shows that the market has begun to price in a potential trading scenario at a premium. At this stage, however, it is more a reaction to the emergence of interest than to any specific arrangements regarding conditions – explains the expert.
— For now, we are not talking about a formal offer, but only a signal that an entity is analyzing the possibility of a takeover. There is a lack of information about both the potential buyer and the price, so the current market behavior is mainly based on speculation and expectations. The increase in ratings results from hopes for an attractive offer in the future, not from a confirmed decision. Maintaining higher exchange rates will depend on whether there are specific, binding announcements from the company, he adds.
Who wants to take over InPost?
The XTB analyst notes that InPost remains the undisputed leader of the parcel locker and out-of-home deliveries market in Europe. – Although the scale of operations does not match global giants such as DHL or UPS, the company stands out due to its advanced technology, large reach and proven last-mile logistics model – he emphasizes.
He lists international logistics operators as DHL, DPD or GeoPost among potential buyers.
— Amazon also remains a natural candidatefor which InPost would be a way to quickly develop the delivery infrastructure in the region without many years of investments from scratch – adds Mikołaj Sobierajski.
He also points out that ownership changes among current investors cannot be ruled out either — the largest packages are held by PPF Group (over 28.75%), Rafał Brzoska's vehicle (12.49%), Advent International (10.98%) and GIC (5.05%).
[AKTUALIZACJA]: : British media report: here is a candidate for InPost
— Smaller, domestic investors with shares below 5%. they could benefit from an increase in valuation, but the key element of a possible transaction would remain the control premium. However, the lack of any movements in the shareholding structure suggests that the source of interest is rather an outside entity, Sobierajski analyzes.
What awaits Rafał Brzoska?
In the context of a possible takeover of InPost, the future of its founder, Rafał Brzoska, is extremely interesting.
— For Rafał Brzoska, the sale of the company would mean a very significant financial gain and the end of his active managerial role, which would further strengthen his position among the richest Polish entrepreneurs. – comments the XTB analyst.
— This would not be the first case of realizing the value of InPost on the capital market – the company debuted on the WSE in 2015, and two years later it was withdrawn from it in order to restructure and improve its financial situation. This time, the sale of a majority or full block of shares would mean the final closure of the operational stage and the symbolic culmination of the path of the entrepreneur who built the company from scratch to the position of a European leader in parcel locker logistics – he adds.
What would the acquisition of InPost mean for the Polish economy?
Mikołaj Sobierajski estimates that From the perspective of the Polish economy, the transaction would be both a clear proof of the success of companies developing abroad and a signal of the risk of losing control over one of the most valuable e-commerce companies originating from Poland.
— In the longer term, a similar scenario may also apply to other domestic companies operating globally, such as CD Projekt, Asseco or Ten Square Games, if attractive proposals from foreign investors or private equity funds appear on the table, he says.
The analyst also notes that theoretically, Orlen has the capital that would allow it to consider such a transactionhowever, in practice, the scenario of InPost being taken over by the concern seems unrealistic and economically difficult to defend.
— Orlen has been organizing its presence in the courier segment for a long time and limits its direct involvement in logistics, focusing instead on cooperation with external partners. An example is Orlen Paczka, whose shares have been separated and the project is heading towards consolidation with Poczta Polska. In this context, the purchase of InPost would not fit into the company's current strategy. Orlen focuses on organizing and integrating local services, not on European expansion through a large acquisition, which makes such a move unlikely and poorly justified from a business perspective, explains the expert.
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In the context of InPost, he also mentions: dispute with Allegro. — It does not have to be a direct impetus for sales talks, but it could play an indirect role. Allegro remains a key partner of InPost, and at the same time it is developing its own logistics solutions, which in the long term increases the uncertainty of the relationship and the pressure to diversify the customer base. The entry of a global owner would reduce the risk of dependence on one large contractor and strengthen the company's negotiating position in relations with the largest e-commerce platforms, he comments.
