Monday's session on the Warsaw Stock Exchange provided investors with a full range of emotions – from a strong opening, through a sudden crash caused by what turned out to be false reports from the Middle East, to a nervous end to trading. Although the morning announced a break with the uninteresting analogy of 2022, the end of the session shows increasing doubts about the continuation of the bull market without looking back. Is the stock exchange proverb “sell in May and leave” just starting to materialize before the eyes of WSE players? For now, Orlen is the best performer, having broken the capitalization record.
WIG20 fights gravity
The beginning of the week on the Warsaw Stock Exchange brought a long-awaited rebound. The main indices started trading with solid gains of over 1 percent, which gave hope for a break with the analogy of 2022. Let us remind you that last week it was possible to close the session “in green” only once, with a symbolic increase of 0.05%. on Wednesday, which interrupted a series of seven declining sessions in a row – a phenomenon not seen on Książęca since the crisis of 2022. Then the series of 8th and 9th sessions at the turn of April and May was broken by one session in which WIG20 gained 0.07%. Unfortunately, last Thursday (no session on Friday), WIG20 returned to decline.
Index on Monday WIG20 increased by only 0.11%, which is a disappointing result considering the morning dynamics. Although it dismisses the analogy from 4 years ago, it is raises concerns about the future of the boom. The broad WIG index gained 0.28%. mWIG40 performed much better, recording an increase of 1.09%. In turn, sWIG80 remained neutral (0.01%). The market turnover amounted to PLN 1.98 billion, of which PLN 1.58 billion concerned WIG20 companies.
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At the same time, the mood on the core markets was equally mixed. At the close of trading in Warsaw, Western European stock exchanges were glowing red. The German DAX lost 0.5 percent, the British FTSE100 dropped by 0.2 percent, and the Paris CAC40 fell more sharply, falling by as much as 1 percent. In turn, overseas, after a weak opening, the indices began to slowly make up for losses. Around the close of the session in Poland, the S&P500 and Nasdaq oscillated on cosmetic gains, gaining about 0.1%.
Chaos in the Strait of Hormuz and Donald Trump's “Project Freedom”.
Morning optimism in Europe may have evaporated due to news from the Middle East that shook markets. The information hype regarding the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran was crucial. Around noon, the markets experienced a momentary decline after the Iranian media reported that an American warship had been hit by missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. The price of Brent crude oil quickly shot up above USD 114 per barrelwhich triggered a wave of share sales.
The situation calmed down only with a firm denial from the US Central Command (Centcom), which denied reports of the attack. The commodity price returned below $110, but uncertainty remained. Additionally, President Donald Trump announced the launch of the “Freedom Project” on the Truth Social platform. This initiative assumes US military assistance in “freeing” cargo ships of foreign countries stuck in the blocked strait.
Conflicting diplomatic signals regarding the situation in the Middle East are the new reality. On the one hand, Iran sent a peace proposal through Pakistan, which provided some temporary relief on Friday. Donald Trump, on the other hand, commenting on the reports on Saturday, said the proposal was probably “unacceptable,” adding ominously that Iran “has not yet paid a high enough price for what it has done to humanity.” This lack of political stability means that any attempt to rebound on the stock exchanges may result in quick profit-taking, although there is certainly some resistance to the comments of the American president.
Orlen on the top, gaming and energy in deep defense
The brightest point in WIG20 was the national fuel champion. Orlen gained 3.82%, improving its record price levels and reaching PLN 138 per share. At this price, Oreln is worth over PLN 160.2 billion on the Polish stock exchange. Investors appreciate the company's stability in the face of turmoil on the raw materials market, and the management board's recommendation to pay out over PLN 9.3 billion in dividends, i.e. PLN 8 per share, is certainly supportive.
Over 1 percent in WIG20, the shares of Kruk (1.54%), Żabka (1.47%) and Pekao (1.15%) also gained. The Kęty exchange rate was on the border of this level (0.99%). There was a good mood in Modivo shares during the daywhich increased in price by 4% in the morning and finally slowed down to 0.73%, remaining slightly above the psychological barrier of PLN 80.
At the opposite extreme in WIG20 were CD Projekt, KGHM and the energy sector. Shares of the gaming industry leader lost 4.14% and the price dropped to PLN 264.20. The situation was no better in the energy sector, where Tauron recorded a decline by 2.11% and PGE by 0.8%. The weakness of the sector may be the result of concerns about the costs of transformation in the environment of high energy prices. In turn, the price of KGHM was depreciated by 2.71%. which corresponded to an identical discount on silver. The clothing giant LPP was also under pressure, losing 2.56%.
A changeable fate befell PZU, which after the morning increases ended the day with a slight loss (-0.53%). Information on the conclusion of a conditional 100% purchase agreement. shares of MetLife Ukraine – the leader of the local life insurance market – was received with reservation, which analysts explain by the political risk associated with the Ukrainian market.
Asseco and Scanway rally lowers flights
The star of the day among large companies was Asseco Poland, whose price increased by 8.84%, reaching PLN 198.15. This is a spectacular return from the March lows (PLN 157), although there is still a long way to go to the historical peaks above PLN 250. However, the XTB broker failed to maintain investors' trust, losing 2.94%, despite the publication of solid estimated results for the first quarter of 2026, where the net profit amounted to an impressive PLN 535 million.
Negative moods prevailed among small companies from sWIG80 after the publication of annual reports for 2025. Synthaverse had a disastrous performance (-7.58%), which recorded a drastic drop in revenues and a net loss of nearly PLN 20 million. A similar fate befell Cognor Holding (-4.81%), where the net loss deepened to PLN 130.3 million.
However, the biggest disappointment of the day came from Scanway to investors. The company, which grew by over 7% in the morning, approaching the barrier of PLN 400, gave up most of its gains during the day and ended the session with an increase of 1.1%. The company presented ambitious acquisition plans and announced an 80% increase in revenues in 2025. y/y (up to PLN 21.4 million). The market was clearly scared by the sudden slowdown in dynamics and uncertainty regarding further financing of new projects in the space sector. In addition, another company from the space sector is going public on a small stock exchange –Liftero, which may shift the attention of some investors.
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