Will apartments become more expensive because of shelters? New regulations come into play

In 2026, demand in the housing market will likely remain at current levels or increase slightly. Supply may be a challenge due to new regulations and planning reform, says CBRE. Experts do not expect housing prices to decline.

“We should look at 2026 with moderate optimism. Demand will probably remain at the current level or increase slightly, especially in the capital. Supply may be a challenge due to new regulations and planning reform. Prices are unlikely to drop, especially in popular locations. The optimistic scenario is stabilization or slight growth. For buyers, this is a good time to look for an apartment with a wide range of offers, especially taking advantage of the end-of-year promotions. For developers, however, the months ahead are full of challenges related to new requirements and regulatory uncertainty,” said Agnieszka Mikulska, a housing market expert at CBRE, in a comment.

According to the expert, in 2025 there was a stabilization of prices and a systematic return of demand, and this was influenced by several factors.

“First of all, in the middle of the year it turned out that the announced government program supporting apartment purchases would not be introduced. As a result, people who were waiting for its implementation and had the financial means returned to the market. In the meantime, developers were introducing new projects, which allowed for the reconstruction of the offer. Secondly, a cycle of interest rate reductions began, which is positive for both customers and developers. Thirdly, the Price Transparency Act increased market transparency and improved the position of buyers,” she said.

“However, buyers who were counting on large, widespread price reductions must face the reality – they are becoming less and less likely. However, it is worth taking a look at the wide range of offers, especially at the end of the year, when developers close their balance sheets and offer numerous promotions. There is a chance to grab a good deal,” she added.

As reported, buyers from the mid-price segment are returning to the market, which will stabilize demand.

“These are largely customers purchasing apartments on credit. This is indicated by NBP data, according to which a decrease in own funds used to purchase an apartment has been visible since mid-2024. The number of loan applications recorded in BIK is also increasing,” CBRE said in its commentary.

Warsaw is the best of all markets in terms of sales. CBRE reported that in this city demand has already awakened and the market is closest to balance, the offer is gradually increasing, prices, despite fluctuations in indicators related to the Price Transparency Act, seem to be stabilizing, and demand has increased in the last months of the year.

“However, there is no potential for sudden changes or incentives that would force buyers to quickly flee to assets or take advantage of a unique opportunity. Gdańsk is also close to equilibrium. In other large cities, we are still closer to supply over demand, although only in Łódź and Katowice the oversupply is significant,” it added.

Mikulska believes that in the coming months developers on the housing market will have to face challenges that may affect both the supply and prices of real estate.

“One of them is the planning reform implemented by municipalities, including general plans. Municipalities have time to adopt general plans until June 30, 2026, but for most of them this is unattainable. It is highly probable that the deadline will be extended by another two months. If general plans are not in place on time and if no additional legal solutions appear, it may significantly hamper obtaining building permits. This element of uncertainty applies to the entire new supply. Nevertheless, we only expect slowing down the pace of new investments, not stopping them completely,” she said.

Another factor – as she added – is the shelter law, which may increase real estate prices by up to several hundred zlotys per square meter..

In addition, the market will be influenced by rising construction costs, including building materials, energy and labor, as well as new technical conditions, including: safety, acoustic comfort and building equipment. (PAP Business)

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