For almost four years, the debate on Russia's war in Ukraine has been dominated by pessimists from both camps. Some predicted that Russia would take Kiev within a few days, others saw Ukrainian troops just outside Crimea during a counteroffensive in 2023 and have long been announcing the use of the last Russian tank. Everyone was wrong.
In recent weeks, those who see Moscow triumphing have reappeared. — Ukraine lost this war, Alice Weidel, head of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, recently said in the “WELT-TV” program.
Political scientist Johannes Varwick, who already in March 2022 spoke about the “hopeless struggle” of Ukrainians, has a similar opinion and now supports a “realistic equalization of the front”.
Indeed, there is a collapse of Ukrainian forces one of the possible scenarios. At the same time, it is equally realistic that Ukraine largely – that is, over 70 percent state territory – will remain an independent and free state. The Austrian historian and colonel Markus Reisner points to the example of Finland in 1940, which lost its territories after the Winter War with Russia, but retained its sovereignty.
To achieve the same goal in the case of Ukraine, the Western alliance – primarily Europe – must maintain high level of support and expand military cooperation with Kiev.
No breakthroughs
Despite the existential lack of air defense systems and frontline troops, Ukraine still manages to limit Russian advances to 400-500 square kilometers per month, inflicting serious losses. The fact that Vladimir Putin is sending his envoys to negotiate with the Americans on the other side of the world clearly shows that in military terms the Kremlin is getting closer to achieving its political goals in Ukraine in extremely slow pace.
From the first days of the war, there was no significant breakthrough on the front. According to leading European intelligence services, it will take Russia at least a year to completely occupy the remaining territories in Donbas.
However, the fundamental question remains as to what this would involve “victory” of Russia — after almost four years of war and over a million Russians killed or seriously wounded. Currently, Kremlin troops occupy just over one-fifth of Ukraine's territory. Even if the Ukrainian army is losing strength due to a war of attrition, President Volodymyr Zelensky still has good cards in his hand.
Actions of Ukrainian services after the Russian attack in Druzhkivka, Ukraine, December 18, 2025.Diego Herrera Carcedo / AFP
Thanks to long-range weapons, primarily Ukrainian long-range drones, Kiev's forces are increasingly taking the war to Russian territory. Attacks on energy infrastructure in particular pose a serious threat to Putin's economy. And on the front, despite a disturbing wave of desertions, there is no sign of Ukraine capitulating. There is still a hard core of Ukrainian soldiers who they will fight until the end.
No matter what this end means.
A strategic moment of the war
Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov said that the talks between the US and Russia on ending the war in Ukraine, which took place over the weekend in Miami, should not be considered a breakthrough, Reuters reported on the night from Monday to Tuesday, citing Russian media.
The meeting in Miami took place shortly after negotiations in Berlin with the participation of Ukraine and Witkoff and Kushner, as well as after the summit in the capital of Germany, at which European leaders announced that the US and Europe had committed to cooperate on providing Ukraine with security guarantees in the event of an end to the war.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said he expects massive Russian attacks on Ukraine during the upcoming Christmas holidays. “It is in the nature of Russians to carry out such attacks on holidays,” the Ukrainian leader said on Monday during a meeting with diplomats. He added that the situation is difficult due to the lack of air defense systems.
