The European Union will loan Ukraine EUR 90 billion, the repayment of which is to be secured by future reparations from Russia or its frozen assets, which are mainly in Belgium. European politicians started sending messages after this announcement conflicting signals.
Pro-Russian Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban announced that the idea of using Russia's assets “is dead, finished and forgotten.” However, Prime Minister Donald Tusk claims otherwise, pointing out that it is still possible to use Russia's assets frozen mainly in Belgium. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says something similar, assuring in an interview for ARD public television that “Russia will not get this money back, at least not before the matters are settled in Ukraine's favor.”
Agnieszka Bryc: this discussion is not over
— I think that the current structure of the loan for Ukraine is a way forward, Europe is giving itself time for further discussion, because the use of frozen Russian assets is still possible and, in my opinion, it should take place. However, it will be very difficult, says Dr. Agnieszka Bryc, a political scientist from the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń.
He points out that the current compromise, i.e. a loan of EUR 90 billion for Ukraine, will allow it to survive economically in the coming months. In this context, it is a good move by Europe. However, the expert does not believe that in the future this loan will be repaid from the reparations paid by Russia. It is convinced that Moscow will simply never pay compensation for an attack on a neighboring country.
— The second security is the above-mentioned Russian assets amounting to EUR 210 billion, which are mainly in Belgium and a lot depends on this country's decision. If Europe does not get this money, member states will probably repay the loan from the EU budget. However, I assume that no one will want to pay, which is why the discussion on frozen assets is not over, says Dr. Agnieszka Bryc.
There is a crisis in Russia, Putin knows it. “We will be failures”
In her opinion, it was bad that the EU did not reach out to Russia's assets frozen in Europe now. And she didn't do it because she was intimidated by Putin and his propaganda. Dr. Bryc reminds that Russia recently announced that a lawsuit had been filed in the Moscow arbitration court by the Russian central bank against the Belgian company that has its hand over the frozen assets.
— We can be sure that the arbitration in Moscow will go Russia's way, but then this matter will go to international institutions. Therefore, in my opinion, there is nothing to be afraid of and the Russians themselves know it. They admit in their analyzes that their chances of success on this path are slim. Therefore, we will be complete failures in Europe if we do not take advantage of these assets. It would be a blow to the local propaganda and show that since you attacked Ukraine, you will now pay dearly for it – says Agnieszka Bryc.
The political scientist reminds that the lawsuit was filed at a time when there is a discussion in Europe about how to get this money, and Putin's propaganda is working hard to convince the Russian public that Europe wants to steal something from Russia.
— This whole discussion in Russia “about thieves from Europe” is accompanied by a growing economic crisis in Russia, its citizens are already publicly complaining that inflation is only in theory under control, because the prices of many products have gone up several times, they have no way to support their families, there is a shortage of medicines, mobile Internet does not work in many regions, there are no investments, so villages and towns are sliding back to the realities of the 19th century. Such complaints are genuinely heard more and more often in the public space there, and Putin heard them at the annual press conference. Society is tightening its belt for another month, propaganda is trying to powder the reality, so it is tempting to strike a blow against Putin's rule – adds the expert.
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How much loan amount was granted to Ukraine by the EU?
What security should be used to repay the loan?
What does Agnieszka Bryc say about the repayment of the loan by Ukraine?
What economic problems exist in Russia according to the expert?
“Cowardice, merchant approach and Putin's hostages”
Although Onet's interlocutor is convinced of what Europe should do, she realizes that it will not be that simple. He points out that even though the full-scale war has been going on for the fourth year, capital is still operating in Russia, including: from the USA, Austria, France, Italy, but also from Poland. These are large banks, companies from the food industry, and in the case of Poland, which is quite far in this shameful ranking, including: a large clothing company and plants producing dressing materials.
Of course, many of these American and European companies still operating in Russia remain private, operating under other names or on the so-called poles, but politicians in these countries fear that if they reach for Russian assets, companies from Europe and the USA operating in Russia may be nationalized by Putin.
— Some assets of Western companies have already been nationalized, Putin may take over others. And this is an effective scare. After 2022, 1,903 Western companies withdrew from Russia, but 2,315 remained. Their assets are estimated at approximately $127 billion. Meanwhile, the Kremlin changed the playing field and introduced the law to nationalize the assets of companies hostile to the state. If they want to withdraw from Russia today, i.e. sell their business, they must first get the Kremlin's consent and then pay dearly. At least 50 percent a discount on the value of the “independent valuation”, and then a “voluntary contribution” to the state budget, i.e. an “exit fee” of 5 to 10 percent. transaction value. It becomes completely unprofitable. The effect is that greed has turned the companies that remained in Russia into hostages of Putin, says Agnieszka Bryc.
— What is a real scare is the lawsuit filed against the Belgian company by the Central Bank of Russia. The problem is that in Europe and the USA, some people are dominated by a purely mercantile approach, cowardice and selfishness. We want to maintain a high level of comfort and we are unable to give it up. Putin and his team notice this, consider it a key weakness and are ruthlessly exploiting it, he adds.
Vladimir Putin received a gift from a divided Europe
The political scientist concludes that Putin has received a Christmas gift from Europe for now. Yes, Ukraine has something to live on for now, but the EU is emerging from this discussion battered. The divergent interests of European capitals and the pro-Trumpist sympathies of individual governments have become evident again, yet Donald Trump is seeking to divide Europe and reach an agreement with Russia as quickly as possible, seeing political, and especially economic, gains in this.
— It is also true that Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have abandoned the vision of a European loan for Ukraine. If member states had to repay these EUR 90 billion in the future, they would not have to do so, which will already be used for propaganda purposes by the anti-EU right wing in Poland. Thus, we once again show that we are internally divided and not unanimous in Europe, and if this is not stopped, the voices about the EU's weakness will only grow stronger, strengthening the radical right and politicians such as Orban, Trump, and ultimately Putin himself – says Dr. Agnieszka Bryc.
