We will remember 2025 as a time of sudden changes and disappointments in relation to forecasts that seemed almost certain at the beginning. For some it was a year of lost hopes for a quick sales recovery, for others it was a moment of painful confrontation with the new regulatory and cost reality.. Against this background, 2026 appears not as a continuation, but as the beginning of a new era on the real estate market. This diagnosis is made by experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl website, who, during a conference summarizing the past year, presented the nine most likely prospects for the housing market and several “black swan” scenarios.
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— The year 2025 was definitely surprising. The biggest surprise for the sector was how one Act on the so-called price transparency has upended the established paths of marketing and selling apartments. The economic surprise was not only the interest rate cuts, but also how they had relatively little impact on sales – summarizes Jan Dziekoński, Head of Market Insights at RynekPierwotny.pl.
K-shaped economy and expensive credit
The first and key context for the housing market in 2026 will be the condition of the economy. According to experts, GDP and investment growth – including: thanks to KPO funds – will go up, but the labor market may go in the opposite direction. Slowing wage growth, rising unemployment and uncertainty related to job relocation and the impact of artificial intelligence may weaken consumer sentiment.
The new year is marked by uncertainty
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Primary Market
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This “K-shape” will directly translate into purchasing decisions. Even if interest rates continue to fall, a home loan does not necessarily have to become significantly cheaper. After six cuts in 2025, which totaled 1.75 pp, the market expects further moves by the Monetary Policy Council.
The RynekPierwotny.pl experts' forecast assumes that by the end of 2026, rates may be in the range of 3.5-4.0 percent, and in the anti-recession scenario even 2.5-3.0 percent. – This is still a lot compared to the years 2013-2021 – emphasize analysts. Additionally, the interest rate on fixed-interest loans is currently linked to bonds, not WIBOR, which delays the real improvement in the availability of financing. The effect may be further weakened by higher burdens on banks, including corporate income tax.
Price war, record offer and a new customer
One of the most paradoxical phenomena of the coming year will be the situation in which apartment sales are increasing and nominal prices are falling. In 2026, the market will enter the market with a record level of offer, especially in large cities. This is the result of mass implementation of projects in 2024–2025, which will be commissioned now.
Prospects for the market
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Primary Market
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— The offer has not shrunk. In November, approximately as many apartments were sold as were put on sale – experts indicate. Effect? An intensifying price war between developers and greater flexibility in negotiations. Discounts, promotions and reductions in transaction prices are already standard today, and in 2026 this trend is expected to deepen.
The process of purchasing an apartment itself is also changing. The Price Transparency Act has reduced the number of inquiries by up to 60 percent, but at the same time, customers are now better educated and more decisive. They increasingly use AI-based tools, and contact the developer only at the final stage.
— Small players who will not adapt to the new realities will have the hardest time. Those who can offer professional service and real value will benefit – emphasizes Jan Dziekoński.
Fall in prices and investors' return to the rental market
The combination of low inflation, weaker wage dynamics and high supply is expected to lead to a further, although gradual decline in housing prices. However, this will not be a “burst of the bubble”, but a slow descent from the peaks, both on the primary and secondary markets.
What awaits the market – explanation
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Primary Market
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Simultaneously conditions for rental investors will improve. After the years 2014–2022, which were the “golden decade” of investing in apartments, the period 2023–2025 brought a decline in profitability. Now the situation is starting to even out.
— Profits from renting average apartments in 2026 will begin to exceed those from deposits or bonds, RynekPierwotny.pl experts indicate. Highly profitable markets are expected to be particularly attractive.
Marek Wielgo, a real estate market expert, points out that the costs of maintaining apartments have already stabilized, which will contribute to the stabilization of the rental market. — Poland is not ready for cadastral tax. The real scenario is possible taxation on the third or fourth apartment, but any party that tries to introduce it will pay a political price for it, he estimates.
Regulatory storm and “shocking” consolidation
The year 2026 will also be a breakthrough in terms of regulation. The developer lex will disappear, replaced by integrated investment plans. New multi-family buildings will have to include places for emergency shelter, which in large cities may increase costs by up to PLN 300 per square meter, or approximately 1.5%. prices. There is also a fight against time to adopt general plans – the deadline may be moved from June to August.
Hypothetical scenarios for the market
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Primary Market
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Although the first half of the year will be chaotic, experts expect that the end of 2026 will bring stabilization, especially in large agglomerations.
Against this background, it is becoming more and more likely “shocking” market consolidation. The ballast of unsold projects, price pressure and succession problems may lead to mergers and acquisitions that will change the balance of power in the industry.
War, peace and market psychology
The last but not the least important factor remains geopolitics. Scenario of freezing the Ukraine-Russia conflict would have a moderate impact on the real estate market. Lasting peace – not anymore. It could translate into a decline in inflation, an improvement in the labor market and a greater demand for apartments, especially for rent.
— Despite everything, consumer optimism determines everything. Today, there are no stimuli that would rapidly accelerate purchasing decisions. But if supply starts to decrease in the second half of the year, a psychological element may come into play, notes Marek Wielgo.
RynekPierwotny.pl experts summarize clearly: 2026 will not be the next stage of the known cycle. – It's a reset of the rules. Those who best understand the new client and new realities will win. It is not the largest size and the highest price that will determine success, but flexibility and professionalism – they conclude.
