China and Russia are strengthening cooperation. Will they change the balance of power in Europe?
As reported by Russian media, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday in Moscow to discuss military and security issues.
“The parties will discuss the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres, as well as contacts between security agencies and special services,” Zvezda military television reported, quoted by Reuters.
The rest of the article below the video:
Shoigu's meeting with Wang Yi took place a few hours before the arrival of the American delegation with the special envoy of the US President, Steve Witkoff, to Moscow. Officials in Washington are scheduled to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin to discuss the US peace plan for Ukraine.
China's role in the peace process
Marcin Przychodniak, China analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, in an interview with PAP emphasized that the Shoigu-Yi meeting is a manifestation of regular Russian-Chinese coordination and communication.
— Coordination to some extent, certainly communication within the entire, let's call it, peace process in Ukraine or US-Russian relations, the expert clarified and added that such close exchange of information between Moscow and Beijing is nothing new.
When asked what shape of a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine would be most beneficial for Beijing, the expert emphasized that China would benefit most from a suspension of the conflict: a confrontation that may not return, or may return, and if so, who knows when. In his opinion, Beijing would benefit from convincing the Ukrainians to accept more or less modified proposals, in fact Russian ones, submitted with the involvement of the United States.
— Russia, which Beijing uses as a scare, will be given a moment to breathe and then it will be able to continue to use the same actions against Ukraine, as well as against NATO and the European Union – said Przychodniak.
Read also: This is how Vladimir Putin hides. Journalists revealed the Kremlin's secret
As the analyst pointed out, China plays the role of a “senior partner” in relations with Russia. However, in the international space, as we approach a peace agreement regarding Ukraine, they emphasize that they are an important player in this process.
— This is evidenced, for example, by Xi Jinping's recent conversation with Trump. Although I suppose it was Trump who called Xi, Przychodniak added.
China and Russia want to change the security system in Europe
In the opinion of another PAP interlocutor, Jakub Jakóbowski, head of the Chinese team at the Center for Eastern Studies, The Chinese are not a player who would influence the content of specific provisions or want to shape the course of peace talks. They want a certain strategic solution that will be beneficial for Russia and disadvantageous for the West.
— At this, the most general tactical level, they give the Russians a free hand. Moreover, the Russians are trying to have autonomy in shaping these specific provisions, the expert said.
Jakóbowski, however, emphasized that what emerged not only after the meeting on November 24 this year Xi Jinping's phone call with Trump, but in dozens of other messages, China says we need to look at 'deeper causes of this conflict'.
— In Chinese phraseology, this means that it is not only about Ukraine, but about the reform of the security system in Europe, which was created after the end of the Cold War, and in this respect the Chinese say very clearly that it should be changed and that it must take into account the “legitimate security interests of the Russian Federation” – explained the analyst and added thatAccording to them, the Chinese are counting on a precedent in which this peace would not only settle Ukrainian affairs, but also give the Russians a much broader say in shaping security in Europe.
Read also: Vladimir Putin signed an important document. It enables silent mobilization in Russia
This precedent – as Jakóbowski explained – The Chinese need it because they feel that they are facing a challenge very similar to Russia, i.e. that in Asia, in the Indo-Pacific, there is a security system with the United States as its central point. They are trying to revise this arrangement. If the Russians, as a result of the war in Ukraine, pressure and talks, managed to make such a breach that would give Moscow a wider say in European security, it would be very beneficial for the Chinese. \
— China does not operate at the detail level, but rather by creating certain strategic faits, the analyst noted.
