Peace in Ukraine. What can Poland do? We have some cards

According to “WSJ”, the Kremlin tempts Donald Trump's entourage with lucrative business proposals. They are intended to “soften” the U.S. position and make Washington not particularly concerned about Kiev's needs and seek the quickest “deal” possible.

If some Western media reports are to be believed, Trump's key collaborators not only do not want to impose their will on Kiev, but are also not particularly interested in the position of the whole of Europe. From this point of view, Poland is a complete pawn in this game.

See also: Trump's plan is a game changer. The Polish economy must avoid Putin's trap

The US position is not uniform

There are many people around Donald Trump who are either hostile to our region – or who are simply not particularly interested in the security of NATO's eastern flank. Such people include the US chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, but he is not the only one. US Vice President JD Vance and his close associate, Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll, are “Eurosceptic”. Trump's very influential son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is also participating in the negotiations, and he is also unlikely to be a great ally of Warsaw or Kiev.

However, the negotiating front in the US is anything but uniform. Just a few days ago, the media warned that Donald Trump wanted to pressure Kiev as quickly as possible to agree to a “peace” agreement – even in an extremely unfavorable version for Ukraine. However, these pressures have largely slowed down, mainly thanks to Secretary of State Marco Rubio joining the negotiations.

He is a much more seasoned diplomat who understands that it is not worth trusting Russia too much. Playing on “traditional” diplomats in Washington can greatly help Warsaw and Kiev in difficult moments. Moreover, such contacts are probably being initiated now – at least our Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski, has good relations with Marco Rubio.

As Polish diplomats argue in unofficial conversations, not only those around Marco Rubio are shaking their heads when they hear about Steve Witkoff's negotiations. Our interlocutors add that many US officials and service representatives are terrified that American negotiators may play into Russia's hands in the name of the particular interests of Trump's entourage.

Recently, Bloomberg wrote about Witkoff's conversation with Putin's adviser, in which the American advised him on how to convince Trump of his plans. There are many claims that the US services could have been behind the leak and want to torpedo an agreement beneficial to Russia.

Poland is a powerful trading partner of the USA

As you know, Donald Trump likes to look at international relations in the context of economic relations. Polish diplomacy must therefore, above all, try to reach Americans with data.

And according to figures from the Central Statistical Office, in 2024, Polish exports of goods to the USA reached EUR 11.6 billion, but Polish imports from the USA (according to the country of origin) amounted to EUR 17.5 billion. In other words, we buy much more in the United States than we sell to the United States. And this should be of enormous importance to Donald Trump.

The marginalization of Europe and Poland in the peace talks in Kiev may undermine our economic relations. Perhaps the export of American computers, tractors or digital services to Poland is not directly at risk here. However, there are more and more questions about whether it is worth buying weapons from the Americans when they are no longer such a reliable ally. There will be more and more of these questions if Poland and Europe are ignored in peace (or “peace”) talks.

On the other hand, constantly growing military spending is also a solid bargaining chip that can be used in talks with the Americans.

See also: KC-390. The monster landed in Warsaw. Will Poland buy it?

A ceasefire in Ukraine is impossible without Poland

“European fighters will be stationed in Poland” – this point appeared in one version of the peace plan. A mysterious and controversial point, but it highlighted something that should have been clear to all parties – without Poland, no plan can succeed.

It's simply geography at work here – after all, we are the largest country on NATO's eastern flank. No one else has the infrastructure that would allow maintaining military logistics for potential Western missions in Ukraine. This was clearly demonstrated by the first phase of the full-scale war in Ukraine. Most of the aid to Kiev went through our airport in Jasionka.

This is our clear bargaining chip – and Polish diplomacy must emphasize it to the American side – but also to the Ukrainian, EU and Russian sides.

Poland can leverage its relationship with MAGA

It is a fact that Donald Trump is considered a very transactional politician. However, the legendary American journalist Bob Woodward also described in his books that he is also extremely emotional and can be loyal.

Look: I read a book by a legendary journalist. He tells us what to expect from Donald Trump

If Woodward is to be believed, Poland was able to benefit from this in the past. It is very likely that Trump considers (or considered) Andrzej Duda his friend. So much so that Andrzej Duda was reluctant to congratulate Joe Biden when he won against Trump in 2020.

However, when the issue of further aid for Ukraine was being decided in 2024, President Duda went to a long meeting with Trump. Bob Woodward describes that it may have been this conversation that finally made the money for Ukraine unblocked by Congress.

Now Andrzej Duda is no longer president, but Trump has often emphasized how close Karol Nawrocki is to him.

Look: Donald Trump: Poland is great and Karol Nawrocki is fantastic

Moreover, our right wing and the president's circle are quite closely associated with the “Make America Great Again” movement, which ensured Trump's presidency. This is also a good card to convince the Americans that Poland is right.

So Warsaw has no shortage of cards in this game. Who knows, maybe we have even more of them than the Russians, who tempt us with “deals” that may never work out. Trump himself should know that business with Russians does not always go according to plan. He tried many times to build a Trump Tower skyscraper in Russia, but he never succeeded. Businesses with Poland are usually much better for Americans.

Author: Mateusz Madejski, journalist of Business Insider Polska