Dąbrowski from the MPC: Another rate reduction only in the fourth quarter 2025

Another interest rate reduction may occur rather only in the fourth quarter of 2025 and it would be the beginning of a cycle of foot cuts in small steps – a member of the MPC, Ireneusz Dąbrowski, told journalists. He added that in June the council would discuss the reduction of the interest rate on the reserve reserve.

“I do not anticipate discounts at the next meeting in June, the discussion may return in July, but it will also be a discussion rather than a decision. First of all, we are waiting for data on energy prices and new tariffs, (…) They weigh a lot. Data.

“I assume that we are waiting for the start of the cycle. I assume that we have done the adaptation and we will see what adaptation will ultimately have an impact. (…) The next step will rather be a cycle, but when, it is difficult for me – the cycle understood as a lot of small steps. I am in favor of the next changes to have the character of the cycle and take place in a very much certainty that we will return permanently to the purpose of inflation.”

The president of the NBP Adam Glapiński at the May press conference announced that the statements of the MPP members at the May meeting show that if the council decided to further lower the feet in July or in autumn, most would be behind the cycle. He added that for the central bank movements of 25 PB. They are more convenient than 50 pb adjustments.

Dąbrowski was unable to determine at what scale the foot could change by the end of the year, because – in his opinion – there is too much uncertainty.

“I will not mention global uncertainty. Today we have a new world-on Sunday a Chinese-American agreement has occurred. This is what global factors of uncertainty will be applied. Oil is already over 60 USD per barrel,” he added.

Dąbrowski announced that in June the MPC will discuss the reduction of the interest rate of compulsory reserve, but currently the result of this discussion is not a foregone conclusion.

“I do not know in what direction the discussion will go in June – rather in the direction of reducing the interest rate on the mandatory reserve, but what the conclusion will be – I really do not know. We will rather talk about interest rates than about the compulsory reserve level itself,” he added.

The mandatory reserve rate is currently 3.50 percent, and the interest rate on reserve means is set at the reference rate, i.e. after the May reduction is 5.25 percent.

At the beginning of May, the President of the NBP announced that the subject of the compulsory reserve parameters would appear at the agenda of the June meeting. (PAP Biznes)

tus/ asa/