The new people of the Tsar from the Kremlin: a “world of hawks and pigeons disguised in the hawks”

The discussions of cessation of fire in Ukraine have brought to the attention of the new world name from the circle of Russian President Vladmir Putin. The uniform ideology should provide a united front, but there are reports that Russian negotiators have received different information or even faced each other, suggesting that it will not work to promote a peace agreement, writes Kyiv Independent.

Kirill Dmitriev and the special envoy for the Middle East at St. Petersburg Photo Profimediaâ

Moscow sent to the Saudi Arabia a delegation led by trusted people – Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and former Russian ambassador, Iuri Usankov – and Washington on Russia's direct investment fund, Kirill Dmitriev, a little known insider.

The most exclusive Kremlin power structures are formed based on personal relationships with Putin and have a common vision of the world. But they are also camps that permanently carry a battle behind the scenes for the Tsar's favor and attention.

The Russian elites are eager to imitate Putin's ideology and for this purpose they are engaged in a game to guess Putin's wishes. But they are also a source of scapegoat, the experts appreciate.

Groups in Putin's restricted circle

They are divided into two broad categories. At the top is Siloviki, officials with military experience or in state security services.

These include officials such as Alexander Bortnikov, the director of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and Sergei Narîșkin, the head of the country's Foreign Intelligence Service.

“They are worried about securitization and I see Russia as an besieged fortress,” appreciates Mihail Suse, professor at the University of Copenhagen. “-

After them come technocrats: officials with experience in finance or business. Prime Minister Mihail Măşustin is well known for the presence under the radar and his role in managing the Russia's fiscal system.

They are the rational ones, “Concerned about a stable and clear international world order”being interested only in “business as usual,” says the expert.

Members of Putin's close circle are almost exclusively men and close to the president.

They all adhere to a similar vision – you animate not so much to the West, as the belief that he cheated on Russia and treats it unfairly, says Suslov.

Thus, for example, Russia has the right to obtain Ukraine, which has become a battlefield between Russia and the West.

Their opinions come from Putin, who in turn are inspired by the works in his circle, says Stephen Hall, assistant professor at the University of Bath.

Kremlin technocrats, in particular, support the importance of connections with the West and the world.

But this more pacifist perspective also means a lower influence on the president.

“In that close group, I think we see hawks and pigeons disguised as a hawk rather than true pigeons at this time.” S, SPut Hall.

A circle that shrinks

Those around Putin are very few, but they are most motivated not to challenge their ideology and vision of the world, in order not to risk losing the president's favor. They will never tell them what he does not want to hear.

It is a vicious circle mechanism: Putin, an authoritarian leader, will not be influenced by the opinions of the counselors. At the same time, it is unlikely that they have other opinions than his own.

Little calls all the time to a “quite fixed set of intellectuals around it“Says Suslov.

This dynamic pushes groups to embrace more and more extreme statements and points of view, going to conspiracy theories.

“When Putin makes a decision, it tends to be final – but, like any leader, it is always open to be pushed to a certain point of view.”says Hall.

New you are

Given the number of small confidants of trust, the political rotation is very low.

Each promotion or fall in disgrace is in itself a major event.

Fortișev, an old ally of Putin, was replaced from the position of Secretary of the Russian Security Council and now runs the Maritime Committee.

But Dmitriev's ascension is a signal that the Kremlin is open to renewal.

The 49 -year -old investment banker is versed in Social Media and Trump's language. He condemns the media as “Promoting false and negative narratives about Russia to undermine peace.”

Dmitriev's entry into the elite was facilitated by the marriage with Natalia Popova – a friend of Putin's daughter, Katerina Tihonova.

Alexei Drobinin, a star in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia and director of foreign policy planning, has access through speeches loved by Kremlin, such as traditional values ​​and “multipolar worlds”.

“Try to bring new blood to the Kremlin. The Kremlin reflection groups around the Valdai club, for example, have a whole galaxy of people who are about 40 years old.” “A new elite that will probably dominate Russian international relations in the coming years,” says Suslov.

As for the negotiators, this closed echo room of the Kremlin means that new information or proposals do not reach Putin, experts say.

“I have seen not infrequently that Putin is of the opinion that Russia is the third largest economy in the world. I have seen that he is convinced that the deaths of the Ukrainians are astronomical, while the Russian deaths are not too big. I do not think it receives the information. It would be very difficult to see a viable reality in terms of negotiation.” says Hall.