On Monday, the Central Statistical Office published a preliminary estimate of Poland's GDP in the third quarter of 2025. According to the Central Statistical Office, economic growth was 3.8 percent. in annual terms compared to an increase of 3.3%. in the second quarter of 2025 On a quarter-to-quarter basis, GDP increased by 0.9% in the third quarter. compared to an increase of 0.8%. in the second.
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The reading is higher than the previous flash estimate of the Central Statistical Office, which stated an increase of 3.7%. on an annual basis and by 0.8 percent quarter to quarter.
Consumption drives GDP growth. Forecast of PKO BP bank economists
“Private consumption remained the main driver of GDP growth, although its dynamics slowed down to 3.5%. y/y 4.5 percent y/y earlier, but remaining above the average pace of the last 3 years. The slowdown occurred despite real wage growth remaining at around 4.5%. y/y. The result of private consumption is weaker, among others. from the NBP's assumptions from the last inflation projection, which may be another (along with the strong decline in CPI inflation) argument encouraging the Monetary Policy Council to continue reducing rates at its meeting in December,” wrote PKO BP economists in a commentary on the Central Statistical Office data.
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In their opinion, the reason for the slowdown in consumption dynamics could be the further increase in savings by households. They added that the savings rate has been rising for over two years and this trend was likely to continue in the third quarter of 2025 due to positive real interest rates and an increase in the percentage of households able to accumulate savings.
A strong jump in investments will have a positive impact on GDP growth
“Investments were a strong surprise, increasing by 7.1% y/y compared to -0.7% y/y in the previous quarter. Data on investments by large companies showed an increase in expenditure by 3.3% y/y, which suggests that the main source of dynamics was the public sector. The important role of the public sector can also be seen in consumption – public consumption increased by 7.4% y/y compared to 2.0% y/y a quarter earlier. We expect further recovery in the coming quarters investments, culminating in mid-2026, when the dynamics may reach double-digit levels, driven by the accumulation of projects before the end-of-year time limit for using KPO funds,” we read in the PKO BP comment.
Bank experts indicate that the increase in investments, due to their import intensity, translated into an acceleration of import dynamics to 5.9%. in the third quarter. A quarter earlier, the import dynamics amounted to 3.4%..
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“Public investments remain particularly import-intensive, including modernization of defense equipment. A positive surprise was the increase in exports, by as much as 6.1%. y/y compared to our previous estimates of approximately 3%. y/y. Thus, after five quarters of negative contribution of foreign trade to GDP, net exports added 0.2pp to the annual GDP dynamics. However, inventories showed a negative contribution (-1pp),” PKO BP economists wrote.
They indicated that in the production part, the fastest growth rate was recorded in transport and warehousing (5.3% on an annual basis) and in industry (4.9%). Trade and repairs increased added value by 4.3% and the public sector by 4.5%. Construction increased by 0.3%.
“The GDP result for Q3 2025 is consistent with the ongoing scenario of strong economic growth with falling inflation – the GDP deflator decreased to 2.5% y/y from 3.5% y/y a quarter earlier. We maintain the GDP growth forecast in 2025 at 3.5%, and we also expect similar dynamics in 2026” – we read in the PKO BP comment.
