Russia has moved 16 bombers and their six-ton missiles closer to Ukraine. What will be their mission?

Ashley Davis30/11/2025

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There are growing signs that Russian Tu-22M Backfire bombers and their six-tonne missiles may return to the forefront of operations against Ukraine.

Bombardier Tu-22M/PHOTO:X

For months, the Tu-22M bombers remained largely inactive. But that could change, and aircraft could pose a new threat as winter approaches and Ukrainian air defenses struggle in the face of increasingly powerful Russian airstrikes targeting cities and energy infrastructure, writes euromaidanpress.com.

Around November 25, Russia relocated 16 bombers to Siberia to Olenegorsk in northern Russia. The move significantly reduced the distance from Ukraine: Belaia is about 4,500 km from Ukraine, while Olenegorsk is about 1,600 km. The Tu-22M's main missile, the H-22, has a range of about 600 km and a payload of 1,000 kg.

Shortly after arriving at Olenegorsk, three of the planes flew into international airspace over the Baltic Sea, carrying H-22 missiles. The objective appears to have been to test NATO air defenses. A Swedish Air Force Gripen fighter intercepted and escorted one of the bombers without further incident.

Reduced activity, then a possible return

In the early stages of Russia's extended war against Ukraine, Tu-22M bombers constantly participated in complex air attacks on Ukrainian cities. However, the pace of these missions slowed in 2024, possibly due to the depletion of H-22 rocket stocks, fueled by acid fuel and weighing about six tons.

Responsibility for air raids has gradually been taken over by Tu-95 propeller-driven bombers, about four dozen of which have become the main strike platforms in almost weekly attacks on Ukraine using H-101 missiles. The fleet of 16 Tu-160 supersonic bombers equipped with H-101 missiles occasionally participated in these operations.

Losses and Vulnerabilities

The Tu-22M fleet faced numerous difficulties, not just lack of ammunition. By June 1, Russia had lost two bombers to Ukrainian drone strikes and one to an S-200 anti-aircraft missile attack.

On June 1, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) sent about a thousand short-range attack drones inside Russia. They destroyed 11 or 12 bombers at four air bases, including Belaya. Among the destroyed aircraft were four Tu-22Ms.

Following Operation SBU — dubbed “Spider Web” — the Russian Air Force moved some 44 Tu-95 bombers and its fleet of 16 Tu-160s to the Russian Far East, thousands of kilometers from Ukraine. The Tu-22Ms were not relocated at that time. Analysis of open-source imagery showed that 43 Tu-22Ms were at Belaia on July 19, and four months later most were still there. Until November 25, when about half of them were transferred much closer to Ukraine.

It is possible that the Tu-22M is preparing to resume large-scale attacks against Ukraine. There is also the possibility that the fleet is in the process of regeneration after years of significant losses.

A “new” plane in public space

Analysts who monitor Russian bombers by fuselage numbers noted that one of the planes that recently flew over the Baltic Sea had never been spotted before. According to the AviVector analyst, it could be a modernized or recently reactivated Tu-22M3.

Russia keeps hundreds of Tu-22Ms in storage. Not all are fit for reactivation, but some may be returned to service, which could indicate Moscow's intention to supplement the operational fleet, possibly in anticipation of a new series of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities.