Russia does not conquer, but destroys. Why might Putin reject Trump's plan?

After a week of international diplomatic efforts, Donald Trump's initial 28-point peace plan, which favors Russia, is already looking slightly better for Kiev, but the US president's efforts for peace in Ukraine may mean that the last word will belong to Vladimir Putin – writes the Economist.

People familiar with the negotiations say that after a week of intensive consultations in Geneva and Abu Dhabi a peace plan that looks like a demand for Ukraine's surrender continues to evolve. Ukraine is more satisfied with its current shape, but no one believes that Putin will agree to this version, says the British weekly.

The entire negotiation process favors Russia, and “the Kremlin will probably have the last word”, but Ukrainians felt “cautious relief” after the latest modifications to the plan, which included the removal of, for example, the point regarding amnesty for Russian war criminals and references to the transfer of part of frozen Russian assets to the US – says the Economist.

Several of the most contentious issues are expected to be discussed by Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. These include the issue of changes to the Ukrainian constitution, which would exclude Ukraine's membership in NATO, and what American security guarantees would look like.

“It is difficult to assess how real this peace process is,” the weekly says. Moreover, some of the newspaper's interlocutors predict that Russia may soften its position only at the end of the negotiations, which will take several months at best.

The result of the negotiations will depend on when Moscow starts to make concessions and – as the Economist's source says – “what the situation will be on the front line.”

Meanwhile US diplomatic overtures 'appear inconsistent'which is a result of the competition between various factions in Trump's cabinet. On the one hand, there is the camp of Vice President JD Vance, who insists on solutions that favor Russia and place the greatest emphasis on US commercial interests; on the other, there are “more traditional players from the intelligence community and the Department of State”, including the head of the department, Marco Rubio.

According to sources in the White House, Rubio won the recent battle in this competition, but it is not the last battle – predicts the British weekly.

Some analysts, meanwhile, believe that Ukraine's situation is not that bad because Russia has not managed to make a breakthrough on the battlefield despite the slow advances of its army. However, the Economist warns that Moscow may be bad at conquest, but great at destroying Ukraine.

Many of the weekly's interlocutors believe that Putin is unlikely to ever accept an agreement that will allow Ukraine to survive. The United States could force him to do so, but the Trump administration is reluctant to exert such pressure.

The Economist writes that “Ukraine may be one step closer to peace – or destruction.” (PAP)

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