What's next in Romania for housing prices in 2026–2027 after, for a typical apartment, the tax will increase by 70-80%. Major bank report explains what 'pivoting from aesthetic to pragmatic' means
Apartment blocks in Bucharest seen from above. Photo source: Dreamstime.com
The new fiscal reality will be harsher for Romanians, both in terms of income and costs. The real estate offer will decrease noticeably, we can barely see this effect, and the market is in a waiting area, claims an ING report.
“Real estate activity will remain low in 2026, with a slow improvement only from 2027”, is the conclusion of an ING report, assumed by the bank's chief economist, Valentin Tătaru.
2026: a year of residential stagnation
The reasons are structural:
- Mortgage costs still high through mid-2026 – even as real interest rates are negative, real household incomes are eroded and lending slows.
- Lower disposable income due to fiscal measures and economic slowdown.
- Construction costs influenced by higher VAT (standard 21%; reduced unified regime to 11%).
- Developers delaying the launch of projects until the NBR gives the clear signal of monetary relaxation.
In short: we are not witnessing a crash, but a “controlled freeze”, driven by a combination of high costs and reluctant demand.
Supply will drop noticeably – and it's just starting to show
Building permits in 2024–2025 were modest, meaning 2026 will see fewer completed projects. The market is entering a phase where new supply is slowly increasing, just as affordability is already at its limit.
Bottom line: new stock will become scarce – and this will put pressure on the prices of good apartments with high location and energy efficiency.
The market is moving towards small, efficient and cheap to heat homes
The report anticipates a shift in preferences: smaller, more energy-efficient units that are easier to build and sell. In a context of higher taxes, high funding costs and real incomes under pressure, the market will migrate to:
- 2-room apartments below 60–65 sq m;
- housing with minimal maintenance costs;
- accessible projects in semi-central areas, but well connected to transport;
- high energy efficient buildings that reduce utility costs.
This pivot is not aesthetic, but pragmatic. Buyers are more sensitive to the monthly bill than the total price.
Key time: June–September 2026
If inflation does not surprise upwards, the NBR could start the first interest rate cuts in the middle of 2026. Only then can mortgage lending noticeably relax.
The effect in the market will appear in Q1–Q2 2027, and 2026 remains a transition year.
Residential will be the last subsector to recover – after infrastructure (strong) and commercial (resilient only on industrial & logistics).
Tax risks: A wave of taxes hitting both buyers and developers
In 2025–2027 the residential market faces the most aggressive tax cycle in the last 15 years:
1. Higher VAT on materials and services
- Standard: 21%
- Unified reduced regime: 11%
- Only homes under 120 square meters and 600,000 lei can benefit from the 9% transitory rate.
2. Property tax (time bomb)
- The market value reform has been postponed to January 1, 2027, but…
- Parliament has already voted to increase rateable values to updated levels for buildings.
- For a typical apartment, the tax could increase by 70–80% as early as 2026.
This fiscal pressure discourages purchases, increases owner costs and reduces the attractiveness of housing investment.
What does all this mean for prices?
Baseline scenario for 2026
- Prices don't drop significantly, but they don't rise either.
- ING sees a “flat” market – with major differences between:
- old inefficient housing (slight downward pressure);
- efficient new housing in good areas (stable to slightly increasing prices due to low supply).
Scenario for 2027
- With monetary easing and credit growth:
→ slow return, not exuberant
→ moderate growth in energy efficiency oriented projects
→ the return of interest in family-friendly housing (3 rooms), but only if real incomes stabilize
Conclusion: In 2026-2027, the advantage is shifting to buyers – but not for long
The residential is entering a cold but orderly period. Supply will decrease, affordability remains problematic, and fiscal pressure will prevent many projects from closing financially.
For buyers, 2026 is a year of negotiation and selection. For developers, 2026 is the year the “financially sound” will survive and be the first to profit when interest rates drop in 2027.
