Russia in a Chinese trap. Beijing raises prices on products that are strategic to the Kremlin. “He's not acting like an ally.”

Economically, Russia is now almost completely dependent on China for both exports and imports. Chinese sellers they unscrupulously profit from supplying Russia with products it desperately needsincluding those intended for military purposes.

Prices of goods shipped from China that are subject to export controls (largely dual-use products that can be used to produce weapons) increased by an average of 87%. in 2021-2024, according to a study by the Institute of Developing Economies of the Bank of Finland (BOFIT). In the case of deliveries to other countries, this increase was only 9%.

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Although the West would like to see the Russian military-industrial complex completely “cut off” from suppliers, the fact that Chinese companies are “robbing” it is also “a pretty good result,” a senior Western sanctions official notes in an interview with the Financial Times.

“If you raise the price of a product by 80 percent, you almost halve what they can actually buy,” he notes. This state of affairs is also confirmed by a Reuters source close to the Russian government. Despite all the talk of friendship, both China and India they act primarily in their own interestand Moscow has no real allies.

China is not behaving like an ally. Sometimes they let us down and withhold payments, sometimes they take advantage of the situation, sometimes they commit outright robbery, there is nothing allied about it

– he complains.

Trade turnover between China and Russia reached a record level of $254 billion in 2024. (PLN 932 840 million) compared to USD 146.9 billion. (PLN 539,505 million) in 2021. However, this is largely due to an increase in prices, not volumes, say the authors of the BOFIT study, who analyzed the trade in “machinery and mechanical devices” (many goods necessary for the arms industry fall into this category). For example, imports of Chinese ball bearings to Russia increased by 76 percent during this period. in dollars, while in physical terms it fell by 13%.

Türkiye also behaves in a similar way. The prices of the sanctioned goods it exports to Russia increased by 25-55%. compared to deliveries to other countries.

The sanctions “limited Russia's technological capabilities, driving up the cost of importing critical goods,” the study said.

— China, to which Russia mainly supplies raw materials, provides a significant part of its export earnings, and the technological products supplied from this country are of key importance for the Russian army, another person close to the Russian government tells Reuters.

Without them, we wouldn't be able to produce a single missile, let alone drones, and the entire economy would have collapsed long ago. If only they wanted, the war would have ended long ago

– he adds.