Local elections for Democrats. Donald Trump hasn't kept his promises about the cost of living [ANALIZA]
Since Trump took power for the second time, poll after poll has shown the same trend: although the president's ratings have gradually and consistently declined, they have not improved the ratings and image of the opposition party, which, deprived of power, could offer mainly symbolic resistance to the president's next moves. At the end of September, in a Quinnipiac University poll, respondents' assessment of the Democratic Party was the worst in the history of over 30 years of research: only 30 percent had a positive opinion about it. respondents (Republicans – 38%).
Still, in Tuesday's regional elections in a number of states – the first electoral test of Trump's second term – Democrats won undisputed and extraordinary victory.
The party's candidates won the gubernatorial elections in Virginia (Abigail Spanberger) and New Jersey (Mikie Sherrill) with a lead of several points, while socialist Zohran Mamdani won in New York. The Democratic Party achieved similarly high and sometimes unprecedented victories in Georgia and Pennsylvania. How to explain these results?
According to Mike Nellis, Democratic strategist and podcast author, the victory was not a coincidence, but it does not necessarily mean the Democratic Party is back in favor with voters. The results, he said, were mainly a sign of “a rejection of Trumpism and the extremism of the Republican Party.”
— Voters clearly said “enough”. But just because they said that doesn't mean Democrats are back popular, Nellis said. As he explains, the key to the success of the party's candidates, as well as the defeat of the Republicans, was the cost of living. Trump, who won in 2024 thanks to promises to immediately reduce prices, did not fulfill his promises – inflation, which had fallen before the elections, is rising again – and this is exactly what the Democrats focused their election message on.
— Democrats didn't win because voters suddenly fell in love with the party again. They won because they offered stability and empathy when the other side was giving them noise Nellis said. He pointed out that regardless of whether the party's candidates represented the moderate wing (the new governor of Virginia, former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger) or the left wing (new New York mayor Zohran Mamdani), they were focused primarily on the issues of the cost of living and Trump's excesses.
“The Pain Felt by People”
— If the party wants to maintain the ground gained this year, it must remain fully focused on the pain felt by people and be present in local communities, the commentator emphasized.
Read also: One year since Donald Trump was elected president. “He didn't keep his greatest promise”
Matthew Klink, a political consultant associated with the Republicans, thinks similarly. He assessed that the price issue was crucial for voters' attitudes, although this does not necessarily guarantee that the Democrats will achieve a similarly good result next year, when the issue of control over both houses of Congress will be at stake.
— American voters are extremely fickle at the momentwhich means they want their personal economic situation to improve immediately. So, despite the fact that Donald Trump has only been president for nine months, the cost of living issue has hurt President Trump, the activist said.
He also added that the quality of individual candidates in individual elections also mattered. After his defeat, Trump himself complained about the party's candidate for governor of Virginia (current lieutenant governor Winsome Earle-Sears), while the Democrats fielded candidates who enjoyed wide support or – in Mamdani's case – mobilized young and the most leftist voters.
Klink noted that election results do not indicate a clear winner in the Democrats' internal dispute between centrists and progressives.
— The two gubernatorial candidates who won in New Jersey and Virginia ran as moderates. They won by an overwhelming margin. However, in New York, Zohran Mamdani managed to convincingly defeat the establishment candidate, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, the analyst emphasized. “This tension between the progressive left, reflecting the Democratic Party's base, and moderate Democrats, who often swing between Republicans and Democrats depending on their economic situation, will be a battle Democrats will have to resolve before the 2028 presidential election,” he added.
