Experts announce when the truce could be signed in Ukraine: “This would bankrupt Russia and force it to negotiate seriously”

The negotiations between the US and Russia could enter a new stage, with the meeting between Trump and Putin, in Budapest. However, how and under what conditions we could have peace in Ukraine seems difficult to predict. For this, “Adevărul” calls on the expertise of renowned specialists in the field of international relations and military analysis.

The key to peace lies with Zelensky, Trump and Putin. PHOTO: AFP

US President Donald Trump succeeded in what few believed – to stop the war in the Gaza Strip, but he did not have the same success with regard to the war in Ukraine. Moreover, in recent weeks Trump has harshly criticized Russia and hinted that it might provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles to strike targets on enemy territory from a distance. This after he had previously flirted with the idea of ​​persuading Putin to give up the war.

In a veritable lesson in strategic ambiguity, the White House leader surprised the Russians, Ukrainians and his allies alike as foreign policy analysts failed one after the other in trying to decipher Trump's plans.

Donald Trump's trademark strategic ambiguity

And Donald Trump reinvented himself once more and took everyone by surprise with the announcement of his meeting in Budapest. An opportunity for those who praised him for his support of Ukraine to criticize and revile him again, and for those close to the Russians to praise him again after covering him with insults.

Specifically, Trump said that “great progress has been made” following the telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin on Thursday afternoon and that he will have a meeting with him in the Hungarian capital, Budapest, on an unspecified date.

Caught yet again by surprise, European allies reacted on Friday 17 October. According to The Guardian, which quotes an EU spokesman, Brussels has welcomed the proposed meeting between Trump and Putin, if it can help bring peace to Ukraine. Moreover, the representatives of the European Union took a step back and stated that Putin will not be detained and handed over to justice, even if he is on the territory of a NATO state.

At the same time, at the end of the week, a high-ranking Ukrainian delegation arrived in Washington, where they discussed with representatives of the Republican Party about military and diplomatic support for Ukraine, but also about strategies to influence the Kremlin.

In such a complicated context, where events happen quickly and perspectives change from one day to the next, “Adevărul” calls on the expertise of recognized specialists to understand in which direction we are heading and what are the chances of getting closer to peace in Ukraine.

Political scientist Flavius ​​Caba, security expert of the Center for Security Policy in Geneva (Switzerland), and General (retd) Crăciun Marius, teacher and well-known military analyst, explain under what conditions we could have peace in Ukraine and in what time frame.

How the Russians fooled themselves

Begun on February 22 at the behest of Putin, the war was sparked by the Russian Federation's full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Although Russian troops have achieved some important victories and occupied more than 20% of the territory of Ukraine, it cannot be said that it is a victory for Russia, as the Ukrainian army is still holding the line of a front of more than 1,000 kilometers and resisting, even paying a huge price.

General Marius Crăciun, the man who in 2003 laid the foundations of the Romanian Special Operations Forces and led elite troops in the combat theaters of Afghanistan and Iraq, also speaks about this. The general recalls that Russia was counting on the fact that it would win the war in two weeks at the most, but the fighting is in full swing, and the two countries have entered the fourth year of war.

General Marius Crăciun. PHOTO: Personal archive

In the opinion of the general who commanded the Romanian Special Forces, in order to hope for real peace, under conditions as favorable as possible to Ukraine, firm actions against Russia are needed. This means, he says, that Ukraine must be supported with military equipment and information through the intelligence services, in order to continue to face its enemy.

“When they started the offensive, the Russians went with the version of the GRU, Spetsnaz (no – the special forces of the Russian army), on the idea that they would parade after two weeks of war in Kiev. The Russian commanders took their parade clothes with them. A good few million euros were invested in the entire agency on the territory of Ukraine. Only the agency was arrested, the operators, the spies have about were arrested or liquidated and forget that we have passed two and a half years of war. This with the help of the Westerners, who provided the Ukrainians with the best information in time and helped them foil the Russians' plans”says the general.

The front is stable for now, even if there have been moments when the Ukrainians have wavered. With the arrival of winter, significant changes are unlikely to occur. Thus, in the opinion of the general, we are still far from the moment when we can talk about peace and the silencing of weapons.

“The front is more or less frozen, maybe in the Donetsk area, where things are still moving. In general, the front is frozen on the Dnieper and so the winter will probably catch us. The autumn is difficult if not impossible for offensive actions, land I mean, because of the mud. The Russians are also trying to minimize their losses, but they are not very successful. They threw very good units, their paratrooper units, but they continue to mobilize and seem to have an inexhaustible human resource. So not from here, not from human resource issues, an eventual truce will come, although many expected it”says the general.

The light at the end of the tunnel would be visible from next summer

And political scientist Flavius ​​Caba believes that we are still far from peace. However, he believes that Trump has the opportunity to pressure Putin to begin more serious peace negotiations in the first place.

Flavius ​​Caba. PHOTO: The Truth Archive

“If we go by this idea of ​​pacifism and President Trump's desire to complete his peacemaking project in Ukraine, an early and feasible horizon would be to have the first signs of approaching peace in about a year. We could probably talk sometime this year, sometime in the summer, of the first signs. Until then, I think both sides still have the resources to continue this war of attrition. Probably in the next few these conditions could be created on Monday. Why did I say until summer? Because I think that in a period of about nine months, let's say a year, we could see a different approach at the international level”says Caba.

By then, both camps could be nearing a conclusion that would lead to serious discussions and some concessions on both sides, so that we could be close to a truce even before the Nobel Prizes are awarded.

“I think it is very possible that it will happen, and before the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded we will have the conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine. And I think that the talks will resume again, with the involvement of Donald Trump, with his mediation, in a reasonable period of time“, says Flavius ​​Caba.

How can Russia be forced to negotiate honestly

General Marius Crăciun believes that in order for the Russian Federation to proceed to serious negotiations, and for the two sides to reach an armistice, several conditions would need to be met.

“In my opinion, the following should happen: the price of oil in the world, with the consent of Saudi Arabia, should drop massively below 40, maybe even to 30 dollars a barrel. This would bankrupt Russia, because the Russian army is financed to a large extent from hydrocarbon exports, oil exports. If the price on the international market would drop – and that would mean that the Americans would also increase their level and production of hydrocarbons, especially oil, but also the OPEC countries to increase production and lower the price in this way – the Russians would enter a real economic crisis”the general thinks.

This would not automatically mean Russia's bankruptcy, but the simple fact that Putin would realize that this is the direction would prompt him to move to much more serious negotiations.

“Russia wouldn't automatically get to the bottom of the bag, but it would give them food for thought and start earthquakes, because the main fear of Putin and his gang is that there will be disturbances at the national level. And these disturbances will only occur when the Russians will be aware that the war has come upon them. And especially when they will be hit all over, when maybe civilian targets in Russia will be hit, as the Russians are hitting targets mercilessly civilians from Ukraine. Only these can determine the snowball effect”claims General Crăciun.

Until then, he says, all the news about the problems of the Russians, about the lack of ammunition and about Putin's incurable diseases turned out to be simple fabrications and speculations without any basis. They created false expectations, and when anyone could see that things were not like that, they turned against those who launched them into the public space, increasing the mistrust of the population.

“We have been talking for three and a half years that the Russians no longer have missiles, but look at the fact that they are actually tripling the number of missiles and drones with which they hit Ukraine. We kept talking about Putin being sick with cancer and all the diseases in the world, and look at the fact that he is still alive and very fit for his age, and I also saw him discussing with Xi Jinping how to extend his life to 150 years”adds General Crăciun.

NATO must help Ukraine with more weapons

In such a situation, General Marius Crăciun still does not see the light at the end of the tunnel and is convinced that the war will continue in 2026.

“So all in all, political language aside, NATO is doing a good job. However, I think maybe more deterrence is needed. More is needed from the political class, especially from the Trump administration. All of this could bring the Russians to the negotiating table next year, to real negotiations, because what we've seen so far has been more of a sham. Until then, we can expect the Russians to continue to hit Ukraine's energy infrastructure, they will continue to hit populated areas. Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems will last as long as they last, as the Russians see themselves producing more and more drones and more and more missiles. It is therefore necessary for NATO to support Ukraine as much as possible, and for the sanctions against Russia to be tougher, until they force Putin to really negotiate. As a result, I don't expect it to end the war too soon, under current conditions, unless something changes economically,” concludes General Marius Crăciun.