It is reported that the Russian Federation is currently carrying out local attacks on the front-line and border regions (Sumy and Chernigov regions); the Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev and Dnepropetrovsk regions are being shelled less intensively (for now).
In these regions, the Russian Federation is trying to methodically destroy the entire energy system – both local generation and its delivery through large substations of Ukrenergo and even distribution in large cities through substations of oblenergos, the media emphasized.
Now the Russians are not striking with a large wave of UAVs at once, as before, but in series at intervals of several drones every hour. This is the first time Ukrainian power engineers have observed such tactics, the UP indicated.
After drone attacks, there are massive attacks on generation, including the use of ballistic missiles.
“The enemy’s global plan is unchanged – to unbalance the system and cause a cascading accident, which is commonly called a blackout. To do this, the Russians are first trying to divide the country’s energy system into two large parts and make them uncontrollable,” the material says.
The goal of the Russian Federation is to create a deficit in the east of Ukraine, where consumption is always higher, and almost all local generation has already been broken, and to gradually paralyze the flow of electricity from the west to the eastern regions, the media explained.
As a result, Ukraine may find itself “in two realities” – a deficit east and a surplus west, between which the “intersections” are very weakened. This is an ideal situation for the enemy to cause a blackout, UP wrote.
“The next step could be an attack on shunting generation in the western regions (thermal power plants), and subsequently an attack on switchgears of nuclear power plants,” the material says. “If these facilities simultaneously receive significant damage, nuclear plants will not be able to supply electricity to consumers, a frequency jump and a system accident are possible.”
A representative of one of the state-owned energy companies predicts that winter in Ukraine “will definitely be in short supply.”
“Most likely, in winter we will face a 4×2 scenario: four hours without light, two with light,” he said in a commentary to the UP.
According to the media interlocutor, air defense cannot provide 100% protection.
“If 30–50 drones and missiles are flying at one object, even the most powerful systems are not able to intercept everything. And one precise hit is enough to disable the power unit of a power plant,” he added.
Context
The Russian Federation periodically massively attacks Ukrainian energy facilities with drones and missiles.
Thus, in a number of regions, temporary power outages were introduced after a massive air attack by the aggressor country of the Russian Federation on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine on the night of October 10.
In particular, emergency power outages were introduced in Kyiv and eight other regions of Ukraine: Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkov, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and partly Cherkassy.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy sector a “cynical and calculated attack.”
On October 11, emergency power outages were canceled in Ukraine, the Ministry of Energy noted. After this there were new attacks by the Russian Federation.
