Poland is the 20th economy in the world according to the IMF. Switzerland is behind, we are chasing the Netherlands
The strong zloty plays a significant role in this advancement of the Polish economy. The value of Polish GDP, when converted into dollars, is expected to reach USD 1 trillion and USD 40 billion this year, which gives us an entry ticket to the renowned group of the 20 largest economies in the world. The Swiss with a forecast of USD 1 trillion and USD 3 billion. they have to settle for 21st place.
Just nine years ago, we were USD 215 billion behind them, and in 2023 the difference dropped below USD 100 billion. and finally we chase them away. That is, unless something changes drastically by the end of the year, e.g. the zloty suddenly weakens. According to the IMF, in the coming years we will not only maintain but also increase our advantage over Switzerland. In 2030, the Helvetii country will be worth USD 127 billion. behind us.
However, the Swiss are now at a similar distance ahead of us as they were a decade ago Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands. Saudi Arabia is an exporter of crude oil and the value of its GDP depends on the exchange rate of this raw material. And here the IMF predicts that we will not reduce the distance for at least the next five years. By 2030 inclusive, it is expected to exceed USD 200 billion.
It's different in the case of the Netherlands. Of this year's $281 billion their advantage over us in five years will be only USD 221 billion. – say IMF analysts.
We will continue our pursuit of the Germans. From 20.7 percent GDP value of the German economy this year, according to analysts, we should reach 23.1 percent. in 2030. In 2016 it was only 13.4 percent.
GDP per capita in purchasing power parity
Okay, but what does the average Pole get out of all this? Some people remember how, under Comrade Gierek, the propaganda of success even talked about 10th place in the world. The total GDP of the entire country is one thing, and the standard of living of its inhabitants is another. These values do not always have to match, although theoretically the higher the economy's production value, the better the standard of living of the population should be.
The indicator is helpful in assessing the standard of living GDP per capita at purchasing power parity. After all, it is not only important how much we earn, but also how much we can buy with these earnings. If our prices are twice as low as our neighbors, even if they have twice the nominal GDP per capita, their standard of living will be the same as ours.
Unfortunately, we are far from the top twenty in the world ranking, but we still rank high in 41st place out of 191 countries surveyed. We are so far from Switzerland that it will take a long time to catch up. This year, according to the IMF, we will be at less than 57 percent. their standard of living (GDP per capita according to PPP), to reach 64% in 2030.
The Japanese after the Poles
But interestingly, we do overtake Japan this year, reaching GDP per capita according to PPP by 1%. higher. We left Portugal behind in 2020 and are increasing our advantage over it – this year to 11.2%. What's more, we are climbing up, because next year we will overtake: Israel, New Zealand and Spain. At least that's what the IMF says.
Then he will stand Another “milestone” lies ahead of us in the form of Great Britain. Yes, yes, the country to which Poles recently migrated is no longer as attractive as it was a decade ago. Mainly due to high prices, higher than in Poland, and slow economic growth. In 2030, we will be only 2.9% below the standard of living of the British people.
According to IMF analysts our GDP in terms of purchasing power per capita is to equal Slovenia's in five years, we will then be only 1.9% behind the Italians and 16.5% behind the Germans.
Author: Jacek Frączyk, editor of Business Insider Polska
