In the “World Economic Outlook” report The IMF draws attention to the adjustment of the global economy to the changed political conditions. Although some of the restrictive customs duties have been eased by new agreements, the situation remains unstable. The publication emphasized that economic growth forecasts are now higher than those in April 2025, but still lower compared to forecasts before trade policy changes.
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The IMF's current forecast for the global economy is growth of 3.2 percent. this year – they are by 0.4 percentage points. higher than in April, when concerns about the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff policy were more pessimistic. Compared to the July update, the forecast increased by 0.2 percentage points. For next year, the expected growth of the world economy remains at the level of 3.1 percent, which is 0.1 percentage point. more than in April, but less than in 2024, when it was 3.3%.
Poland stands out from global trends. The IMF forecasts that the country's economic growth will reach 3.2%. in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, which means an improvement compared to the result in 2024, when it was 2.9%.
Among the world's most developed economies, The United States is expected to record GDP growth of 2.0 percent. in 2025 and 2.1 percent in 2026
The euro area as a whole will reach 1.2% respectively. and 1.1 percentGreat Britain – 1.3 percent in both years, and Japan – 1.1 percent. in 2025 and 0.6 percent in 2026, Germany, which according to the IMF will emerge from recession, is expected to record growth of 0.2%. in 2025 and 0.9 percent in 2026
Faster development is expected for emerging economies, which are expected to grow at a rate of 4.2%. this year and 4.0 percent in the next one. However, these values are slightly lower than in 2024, when the increase was 4.3%.
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China, which recorded growth of 5.0%. last year, they are expected to slow down to 4.8%. in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026. India's economic growth, amounting to 6.6 percent. this year, it is expected to drop to 6.2 percent. next year, but the country remains the leader in the region.
Russia is struggling with a significant slowdown. In 2024, its economy grew at a rate of 4.3 percent, but this year the growth will be only 0.6 percent and in 2026 – 1.0 percent.
