An ally billionaire with Viktor Orbán has a chance to return to government in the Czech Republic after today's elections and tomorrow. Brussels and Kiev keep their breaths

The Czechs will probably remove from power the current center-right government, following the elections on Friday and Saturday, the surveys indicating that the populist billionaire Andrej Babiš could return to government based on salaries and economy, as well as to reduce the aid granted to Ukraine, writes Reuters.

Former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is close to winning the parliamentary elections that take place on Friday and Sunday in the Czech Republic and has a chance to return to the head of the Government.

The polling stations will be opened on Friday between 2:00 pm and 22:00 (15.00-23.00, Romania time), and on Saturday between 8:00 and 14:00 (09.00-15.00, Romania time), and the results are expected on Saturday afternoon.

The government is not announced a simple one, given that the billionaire will have to deal with a fraud process, question marks on his conflict of interests, as well as anti-EU positions from the potential extremist allies.

The ANO Party, founded by Babiš, leads in opinion polls before the elections of October 3-4 with over 30% of the votes, with about 10 percentage points more than the spouse coalition of the current Petr Fiala.

Babiš promised generous public spending, reducing support for Ukraine and protecting Czech citizens from the dangers beyond borders, migration and expensive climatic policies.

All these promises seem good for many of the Czechs, who have suffered from the inflation that appeared after the Covid pandemic and the invasion of Russia in Ukraine and decided to punish the Spolus coalition, now in government, and its liberal allies.

For Brussels, concern is about the fact that the Alliance of Eurosceptics in the EU extends. Ukraine also has reasons for fears as Babiš does not support the Czech aid for Kiev.

The problem of the majority

While he is almost certain that he will win, the polls suggest that ANO will not have a majority, however, which is a challenge for the Babiš Combat, whose main strategy to accuse the mainstream corruption parties left few allies.

Even with the small allied party of motorists, ANO could have difficulties in reaching the required number of parliamentarians to get a majority in the lower room with 200 members, I think analysts.

The situation will probably push Babis to seek support, possibly for a minority office, from the far right party SPD and, possibly, the far -left party! Both want to leave the European Union and NATO and stop the help given to Ukraine.

Babiš tried to balance the need to attract these extremes with him with the promise to keep the pro-Western trajectory.

“The EU comes with regulations, espionage, ecological taxes, but we have to defeat these things in the European Parliament,” Babiš told a rally in the central city of Kralupy, calling on “defeating the ecologist crazy people and the socialists who do everything they can to destroy Europe.”

Babiš said he rejects any steps in the direction of exit from the EU or NATO, including the requests for organizing some referendums, counteracting the accusations of the current government who said that the billionaire would depart the country on the pro-Western democratic path.

The essence of his opinion is that the EU should be led exclusively by national leaders and not by institutions such as the European Commission.

But maintaining such a strategy towards the EU will be difficult with extremist allies and a fragmented parliament, said political analyst Lukas Jelinek, quoted by Reuters.

“SPD and Stacilo! They will not sell cheap,” Jelinek said. “It would be a surprise if Babis managed to form a minority office to withstand four years.”

The relationship with Orban

Babiš, a 71-year-old businessman, born in Slovakia, went from liberal to conservative positions since he entered politics in 2011 and drove a center-left office in 2017-2021.

He once wanted the Czech Republic to adhere to the euro area, but in the meantime he became Eurosceptic and supporter of Trump, distributing baseball hats with the inscription “Strong Czechia”, inspired by the Slogan of the US leader.

However, Babiš refuses NATO's defense expenses supported by Trump and criticized customs duties and failure to get peace in Ukraine.

Babiš has no loyalty to ideology, but appreciates personal relationships, writes Reuters. One of the most important is the one with the Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, along with the “patriots for Europe” anti-Brussels group.

“There is a strong personal relationship and a certain admiration for how long and how strong Orban has held the power in Hungary and for the way it is capable-even if in an unconstructive way-to play a role in European problems,” said Tomas Petricek, former foreign minister in Babis's office.

Czech journalist Petr Jedlicka, from Denik Referendum, explained for Hotnews that Babiš will probably end a coalition with Fico and Orbán, but only an ad hoc, when it suits them – not permanently, out of ideological or geopolitical beliefs.

What will Babiš do with the company

Babiš was born into a family of diplomats under the communist regime, he attended high school-and played volleyball-in Switzerland. He registered in the Communist Party, worked in foreign trade and had contacts with the secret police.

After the fall of the communist regime in 1989, he set up Agrofert, gradually transforming it into an international conglomerate of food and chemicals with 30,000 employees.

Agrofert has benefited from numerous public contracts and subsidies for agriculture and development. Last year, he received 1.6 billion crowns ($ 77.21 million), mainly direct payments from the European Union for agricultural production.

According to the Czech and European norms on the conflict of interest, Babiš must sell its company, or the company must cease to receive subsidies, or he must withdraw from the office and name a deputy to lead him, said the Transparency International Supervisory Organization.

As an ANO candidate for the position of prime minister, Babiš, who has a wealth of $ 4.3 billion according to Forbes magazine, says he will respect the rules, but he will not sell agrofert.

The director of Transparency International from the Czech Republic, David Kotora, said that Babiš's intentions are not clear.

“We can get to a situation similar to the one from 2017-2021, when he tried to postpone and trivialize the problem through the institutions controlled by ANO,” he said.

The failure to resolve the conflict could cause the European Commission to take measures to stop the grant granted to Agrofert, he said.

Babiš also faces a trial, after a court of appeal has canceled a acquittal, following the charges that he had committed fraud in obtaining an EU subsidy of 2 million euros for the construction of Capo Hnizdo, a conference center near Prague.

Less help to Ukraine

The support for Kyiv could have the most suffering.

ANO does not support Ukraine as clearly as the current government and rather handles according to the current mood of most society.

“To this will be added the position of allies, parties that are directly or indirectly pro-Russian. Therefore, a certain change in foreign policy is expected in terms of Ukrainian affairs, although not at the Hungarian extremity,” said Jedlicka journalist for Hotnews.

For example, Babiš no longer wants to support the initiative on ammunition, in which the Czech Republic buys old Soviet ammunition from different parts of the world, artillery supplies, with the money of Western countries and sends it to Ukraine.

In the case of NATO, the ANO government will rather support the continuation of arming in NATO, says Jedlicka.

ANO representatives criticize for example the purchase of F-35 aircraft, but they want to use this money to strengthen the anti-aircraft defense, Jedlicka concludes.