The deterioration of the Polish rating perspective by the Moodys's agency and the threat of reducing the assessment in the future did not scare investors. EURO and dollar courses in the morning are stable. The Warsaw Stock Exchange represented by the WIG20 index starts slightly under the line. We wrote more about it here.
Rating is one of the main topics of morning comments from banking economists. On the one hand, there is satisfaction that there was no main assessment. On the other hand, there is uncertainty to the future, especially since there are no prospects for quick repair of public finances.
Polish rating from Moody's. Comments of economists
“Reduction of the rating perspective by the Moody's agency, after Fitch made an analogous decision, was expected. It is positive that the fears have not been fulfilled that the agency will reduce the rating itself, leveling it with the level of Poland's assessment according to Fitch and S&P” – indicate economists of PKO BP.
“We assume that The reduction of the rating perspective has already been priced by the market, which at the first sessions of the week can generate a “Rally of Relief”. It may result in strengthening the zloty relative to the euro and dollar by about 1-2 gr. “-it was written in the PKO BP report.
In turn, Pekao experts, mentioning rating, assess that An unfavorable environment for Polish assets will also remain in the coming week. “That's why we expect a further gradual discount of Polish tax bonds, but without a significant outflow of investors. The profitability of Polish treasury bonds is so high that they are attractive to abroad. EUR/PLN has already reached the upper limit of the medium -term fluctuations and we do not expect it to be broken. Zloty should be helped by a re -weakening of the dollar, “we read.
One of the main allegations of Moody's against Poland is a large budget deficit and growing debt. “We do not think that a significant reduction in spending pressure is possible in the next few years, given that 2027 will be the year of parliamentary elections that will not prompt the government to seek savings” – commented Bank Santander economists.
Add that on the other hand, The probability of reducing rating can be reduced if a rapid economic growth rate is maintained in the coming yearswhich would reduce uncertainty towards Poland's ability to service debt.
Polish rating. “Yellow card for politicians”
At ING Bank Śląski indicate that Rating a rating perspective is a yellow card for politicians and a strong signal rather directed to this group. “An election campaign is underway before the election in 2027, the agency expresses its fears that it can bring further increase in budget expenditure. If that happened, it is possible to reduce the rating itself” – we read in the commentary of ING experts.
They emphasize that the key foundation of the still high creditworthiness of Poland is high economic growth (the country can afford, for now, to support rapidly growing debt). “We believe that the current state of debate on the political scene is overly focused on social expenditure, and too little on supporting the supply of the economy (enterprises, their competitiveness, etc.) also does not serve creditworthiness” – they emphasize.
