The decision that would risk leading Romania to war with Russia. General: “It is a complex technical problem, but not insurmountable”

Romania announced, through the voice of President Nicușor Dan, that he will not hit the Russian drones and missiles above Ukraine, as President Zelenski requested. Poland is, at this moment, the only country that takes into account this variant. The political scientist Vlad Borțun, from Oxford University, and General (r) Virgil Bălăceanu explain, for “Adevărul”, which would be the solutions.

Romania and NATO want to avoid any risk of entering the war with Russia. Photo: Pixabay

Ukraine is insistently demanding, from the beginning of the war with Russia, that NATO will bring down the rockets and drones launched by the Russians to its targets. So far, President Volodimir Zelenski has been hit by the refusal of the Allies, who do not risk war with a nuclear Russia.

However, recently, Poland has transmitted a signal that things could change. Following the episode of Russian drones launched on his country, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski suggested that NATO states should consider imposing an air prohibition above Ukraine. It imposed an area of ​​air prohibition, that is, a no-fly area above Ukraine, would mean the breaking of drones that present a potential danger to Poland.

“If Ukraine would ask us to break them over its territory, this would be advantageous for us. If you ask me personally, we should consider this possibility“Said Sikorski.

This was not Sikorski's only statement in which the Western partners did not march. Recently, at the Yalta European Strategy annual meeting, organized in Kiev by the Viktor Pinciuk Foundation, the Polish minister said that security guarantees for Ukraine are devoid of credibility in the absence of a real will to enter into a direct war with Russia.

“Ukraine already has security guarantees from the Budapest Memorandum. If new, more explicit ones were adopted, they would not work. A guarantee means that if a state is attacked, someone will start a war to defend it. Whoever wants to fight with Russia can start now, but they do not see those who want ”, said Sikorski, quoted by the European Ukrainian publication Pravda.

Virulent reaction from Moscow

Russia has not lost the opportunity to answer. Through the voice of former president Dmitri Medvedev, the Russians warned that they would consider a declaration of war by NATO of a NO Fly area and the breaking of Russian drones and missiles above Ukraine.

“Implementing the provocative idea of ​​Kiev and other idiots to create an area of ​​air prohibition above Ukraine and authorizing NATO countries to break our drones will mean one thing: NATO War with Russia ”threatened Medvedev, according to Agerpres.

Romania, like the other NATO states, is not willing to risk a military conflict with the Russian Federation. President Nicușor Dan recently said that Romania does not take into account, at this time, to hit the Russian drones and missiles above Ukraine. The head of state believes that this could be equivalent to hiring Romania in the Ukraine war. As Romania is not attacked by the Russian Federation, the famous NATO article 5 could not be activated, and our country should go alone in a war that does not belong to them, most of the experts have consulted Nicușor Dan. However, Nicușor Dan understood that if such a decision were made to the entire North Atlantic Alliance, Romania would act with its allies.

“I had incipient discussions on this topic with people from the national state apparatus, counselors, army people, foreign policy specialists. For the moment – rather no. But, depending on the evolution of things, we can reconsider. (…) There are international customs about what it means to be in a conflict or not. And on this subject, on some majority interpretations, to do this means to engage in the conflict ”said Nicuşor Dan, at Antena 3.

Recommendation of an expert at Oxford University

“Adevărul” discussed this topic with the political scientist Vlad Borțun, a researcher at Oxford University, and with General (r) Virgil Bălăceanu.

Vlad Borțun goes to Nicușor Dan's hand in this situation and says that if Romania decides to break the Russian drones in Ukraine, the risks would be too high.

“It would certainly be a risk and escalation of tensions that we cannot afford. The fact that no other NATO member state except Poland has requested such a measure is sufficiently edifying in this regard. It has no meaning for Romania to be thrown into the fire. says Vlad Borțun.

General (r) Virgil Bălăceanu, the one who represented Romania at the NATO command in Brussels and was head of the Southeast Multinational Brigade, tones. In his opinion, the Romanian army could bring down from Ukraine Russian drones that endanger Romania. The problem would be, says the general, that it must be established exactly which drones could endanger Romania and only those should be hit.

There is a solution just for drones that can target us

“I think the Poles think about all the measures they should take for air space protection. Following, I said, the Gerbera testing and misinformation operation. Most, if not all rockets entered into air space of Poland, were of this type, bait drones. And then, from the point of view. The situation, from a technical point of view, would be an area of ​​air prohibition that would extend only on a space where rockets or Russian drones would have a dangerous trajectory for us, which we determine through our own systems, and here I speak of the national ones and the NATO research, supervision, an early warning. explains the general.

A complicated mission

He admits that it is complicated to determine exactly which drones and rockets could reach the airspace of Romania or Poland. However, this is plausible. On the other hand, the general points out that only drones and missiles that risk reaching our airspace can be shot down without risking a conflict with Russia. Otherwise, Romania could be regarded as a cobeliging country.

“It is true that it is a complex technical problem, but not insurmountable. This is how we could execute the destruction of these drones, either in a kinetic way or by electronic means, before reaching our airspace during a predetermined trajectory, in the air space of Ukraine. The localities, facilities and military infrastructure of Ukraine, and things would be complicated ”explains the general.

In principle, the trajectory of drones can be identified from several hundred kilometers away. Thus, Russian drones can be observed since they are in the area of ​​the snakes and can be followed, and their trajectory could be accurately calculated.

Theoretically, if this is decided, Romania would act only on rockets and drones targeting the Danube ports on the border with Ukraine. And here there is a “gift”. Strute would only be those that risk becoming a danger to Romania and enter our airspace.

“For us a partial limited area of ​​air prohibition against Russian drones would be the air space of Ukraine in the Danube ports, but only for rockets and drones that risk entering our airspace.” General Bălăceanu points out.

The solution for drones that can be diverted to Romania

Another problem that would be to be considered is that of the drones that are hit by the Ukrainian anti -aircraft defense and can fall into the Romanian or Polish space, as happened not once. And in this case there are, in principle, solutions.

“Here you can collaborate very well with the Ukrainians because they see them electronically. They see optically when a drone no longer has the ordinary flight, it has a flight that does not respect the initial trajectory because they acted on these drones. Because some drones are hit kinetic, but they still retain their portability in the air, or that it has been in the air. Air, and here is a national mission, possibly in the NATO context, to destroy these drones, because they keep their explosive and represent a real danger to our citizens. They are not explosive. adds the general.

A problem without solving

Discussions on an area of ​​Ukrainian air prohibition appeared immediately after the Russian Federation attacked Ukraine, in 2022. The issue was discussed several times at NATO level. The Biden administration, however, refused every time the requests of Ukraine for fear of an open military conflict with a Russia holding nuclear armament. Nor did the other NATO states open to Volodimir Zelenski's requests.

The head of the Ukrainian state tried to persuade the Allies to proceed exactly that when Israel was attacked by Iran, and the US, the United Kingdom and France broke some of the rockets and drones launched by the Tehran regime. The official explanation was that, unlike Iran, which does not hold nuclear weapons, the Russian Federation could trigger a nuclear war if they felt sprouted. In addition, even a conventional NATO – Russia would be difficult to lead and would mean numerous victims on both sides. Given that none of the parties wanted to escalate, the war remained located in Ukraine.