What is the play of Belarus. Gestures towards Poland are like drones-wheels
This last one was impossible for one more, additional reason. There was an unfortunate time convergence on the one hand of Poland closing the border with Belarus, and on the other hand the American -Belarusian conversations, which resulted in the release of the aforementioned dozens of political prisoners. In the logic of the regime such as Belarusian, it is never inferior if it may look like under pressure.
In other words, Minsk, even if he considered the release of Post -Bad, then at which Warsaw announced the closing of the border, he had to withdraw from it. Imagine, however, the script in which the Poczobut would be released. The brutal truth is that such a gesture, apart from the fate of the person concerned, nothing in the general picture would not change. There are nearly one and a half thousand political prisoners in Belarus, and Belarus is a brutal dictatorship. The release of the initial would not change anything in this respect.
Exercises Zapad: What Minsk says is more important
Belarus was not assured that the exercises were collapsed – the conduct of which led to the otherwise correct, closing the border, would not become a starting point for the assault on NATO. What Minsk says is no longer important. First of all, because we heard the same thing 4 years ago. Only that the Russians after maneuvers with Belarusians remained in Belarus, and then attacked Ukraine. Secondly, because it is not Minsk, but Moscow makes all decisions. Thirdly, because the exercise scenario provides a nuclear war with NATO.
And finally, fourthly, because we do not need Minsk assurances to know that maneuvers will not become a starting point for the attack, whether on our country or for any of the Baltic States. They will not become them, not because Minsk does not want war, but because the Russians have involved virtually all their available forces in the war with Ukraine and are not able to start a war with any NATO state.
All of the above facts mean that positive signals sent by Minsk are unfortunately the equivalent of drones – lure. They are only to distract our attention from what is in the case of drones, and politics – reality. This one is that Belarus is de facto a total of Russia.
Continued article under video material
Today, dialogue with Minsk does not make much sense anymore
This does not mean, of course, that the regime is not trying again to conduct its traditional policy, in which the trade of political prisoners always took place, and the regime simultaneously made movements towards Russia and in the opposite direction. The thing is that the latter, although the Eastern vector did not balance, were significant in the past. The difference between the realities from years ago and contemporary is absolutely basic. 10 years ago, Lukashenko was really based on Russian pressure to let more serious Russian forces into his country. In 2020, Ukraine was attacked from Belarus. Lukashenko nobody even asked for permission.
10 years ago, Lukashenko's gesture towards the West was limited on a scale, but still politically really important joint exercises of Belarusian and British special forces at the training ground in Belarus. Today, a significant gesture from Lukashenko is to inform us about the drones that come to our territory, and this happens a few days before Russian and Belarusian forces practice a nuclear war with us.
In the past I was of the opinion that going into play with Lukashenko had sense. Although there was no chance to drag him to the West, the widening of his maneuvering field gave us measurable benefits. With one most important at the forefront. It enabled Łukaszence to keep, incomplete, but still an important range of sovereignty.
Such a course of thinking was unfortunately drained from honor and faith. Each time she won the option not to lead with the dialogue regime. Each, undertaken – let's add clearly – both by the PO and PiS rule, the attempt to dialogue with Minsk has always been sabotaged by Polish special services (which in this respect often operated against the government) and their agent placed in the Eastern foundations, analytical centers and the media. In time, unfortunately, the black scenario came true. Today, dialogue with Minsk actually does not make much sense anymore. There is neither anything or anyone to talk to.
The action of both services and specific people who were always against the dialogue, when this one still made sense, should be the subject of counterintelligence analysis. Moscow won thanks to our politics. An attempt to translate your obvious errors with values and moral principles is a mockery. The idealism of stupidity or betrayal cannot be explained.
We cannot count on Belarus to Washington
All of the above, unfortunately, does not change the present, and this is in the Belarusian direction extremely pessimistic. This happens, especially since the attitude of Washington does not yet give hope for any positive change. The recent statement of vice president JD Vance that Donald Trump sees no reason to economically isolate Russia, very clearly indicates the way of thinking of the current American administration with a geopolitical order in our region.
As part of these orders, the Trump administration does not aim or drag Lukashenko to the West (this – let's repeat – it has always been something impossible), or even attempts to make him a neutral player. Everything indicates that Washington is ready to recognize or has already recognized Belarus as part of the exclusive Russian influence zone. It is only about Lukashenko to make a less repulsive impression. For Poland, this means that we cannot count on Belarus in Washington.
