Cutting yes, but no more than once. Masłowska, RPP: It is possible to adapt another adaptation
In 2025, it is possible to adjust the percentage of percentage another, although it seems that no more than once – a member of the Republic of Poland Gabriela Masłowska informed PAP Biznes. She added, the council refrains from strongly lowering the feet, so as not to cause the need for their increases, which would not be conducive to macro stability.
“Scenarios for the current year are three: maintenance of interest rates at the current level, 4.75 percent, increase and lowering. Each of the possibilities comes into play depending on the data from the economy and inflation data. However, the space to the reduction is naturally greater, and not to increase the foot, which I do not assume, although I also remember how serious the risk for inflation is. And in the world, it is not over.
“I think it is safer to reduce interest rates on a smaller scale, but thanks to this you can do it more often. Such a solution is in my opinion more safe. This year I see the possibility of next to adapt the feet, although it seems that no more than once” – she added.
Masłowska announced, according to what the President of the NBP previously communicated, the council does not announce the path of interest rates.
“We operate as a monetary policy council to bring inflation and keep the purpose. In conditions of variable, very dynamic internal, external, also geopolitical, on the raw materials market, in conditions of high uncertainty, the announcement of a cycle of reductions would be too risky” – the economist pointed out.
The President of the NBP announced after the September meeting that there is a careful desire to reduce interest rates among the MPC, but the council also sees the risk for inflation.
According to Masłowska, there are several major factors that stopping the monetary policy from loosening. The most important of them is a loose fiscal policy, and then the economic situation, administered prices and the situation on the labor market.
“Fiscal policy is a key factor. The GG sector deficit in 2025 is to get closer to 7 percent. Such a deficit, with an economic growth of 3.5 percent, is unimaginably high. So there was a huge loosening of the government's fiscal policy, despite the fact that the economy is in good condition. Some politicians or economists argue with this expenditure on reinforcements. The reinforcement in 20 percent contributed to the increase in public debt.
“The more that the economy is in good condition, it does not require support. NBP in the opinion of the budget always emphasizes that the increase in debt raises problems for macroeconomic stability. Such fiscal policy creates risk to maintain low inflation in the near future. I.e. inflation falls, but the risk of bouncing up for this reason is quite high,” she added.
As for the economic situation, Masłowska pointed out that the result of GDP in Q2 (3.4 percent yaws) is the result of rapid growth of consumption, which also means inflation pressure.
The MPC member noted a slowdown in the increase in remuneration in Poland, but believes that their dynamics is still high (8.8 percent in the national economy in II quarter) and disproportionate to work efficiency and economic growth rate.
“This translates into consumption, not to savings and investments, which works pro -inflationary. Such a high dynamics of salary growth also causes pressure on the increase in prices of services, which is why the dynamics of service prices, although it decreases, is still high,” she added.
According to Masłowska, if there is frostbite from October 1, energy prices (the government announces their further freezing and decrease in prices for the household business below the freezing level from 2026), then from the current level of 2.8 percent. Inflation will increase to 3.6 percent In the fourth quart of this year, i.e. it will exceed the level of the upper deflection band.
“In January, we are also probably dealing with a change of thermal energy tariff and gas, water supply, garbage disposal. An increase in excise duty and sugar fee are planned. In the longer term, at 2027, there may be an increase in emission costs under ETS2, which would conquer inflation very much,” said the Republic of Poland.
“Therefore, we refrain from a radical lowering of percent rates, guided by the principle not to restore high inflation and do not cause the need to raise interest rates, which would not conducive to stability in the economy and finance. With this situation, the Czechs are most likely at the moment. They reduced their feet quickly and now, and now we will have to increase them a bit – and now we will have to increase them slightly – and now we will probably have to increase – Avoid ” – she added.
The MPC traditionally adopted the assumptions of monetary policy for next year in September.
Masłowska, when asked about possible changes in the document relative to this year, announced that in the assumptions at 2026 the Council maintained the current strategy of the NBP monetary policy and the main statutory goal of monetary policy remains to ensure price stability.
“At the same time, monetary policy will be pursued in such a way as to promote the maintenance of sustainable economic growth and the stability of the financial system. So the NBP will continue to use the strategy of the medium-term inflation target of 2.5 percent with traditional deviation +/- 1 pp. the currency market.
The publication of full assumptions will take place at the latest on September 26 – according to the list of acts waiting for the publication of RCL.
The Monetary Policy Council at the meeting on On September 2-3, 2025, it reduced all NBP interest rates by 25 pb, including reference to 4.75 percent.
Rafał Tuszyński (PAP Biznes)
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