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Inflation, measured by the National Institute of Statistics through the Consumer Price Index rose to 9.9 %, from almost 8 % last month. Economists with whom Hotnews discussed said that we can expect a two -digit inflation this fall.
Although each of us feels it every time we go to the market or enter a store, there are certain economic actors who are happy when inflation is high. “If we look at the episode of increasing the inflation rate that started in 2022, by far, the government is the largest winner of the generalized increase in prices: out of the 61 billion lei increase in budgetary revenues in 2023, a total of 45 billion came only from the increase of prices,” says Adrian Codirlașu,
Also, explains the Romanian economist, another category of beneficiaries of a high inflation are debtors. And the main debtor in the Romanian economy is the state.
“Debtors, such as governments and companies, can benefit from high inflation by reducing the real value of their debt. In other words, high inflation makes the amount due to less value in real terms, which means that debtors can reimburse their debt with less resources, explains Codirlașu.”
The conclusion of the scheme of capping the electricity and fiscal consolidation package led to the reconfiguration of the inflation trajectory, and the National Bank estimated last month that the inflation rate will climb to a maximum of 9.2% in September, and will decrease at the end of the year, up to 8.8%.
Thus, the trajectory takes in the first part of the interval the extensive impact of the increase of electricity tariffs in July 2025 and that of the increase of indirect taxes – VAT and excise duties – in August of the same year, the two shocks having the first round effects at 2 percentage points each. The influence of these measures on the annual rate of IPC inflation will persist for 12 months.
Thus, in the third quarter 2025, the inflation rate will register a significant jump, up to a maximum of 9.2% in September, to decrease slightly at the end of the year, up to 8.8%, the report on inflation published last month shows.
In short:
Energy prices: The elimination of the capment of energy prices has led to a strong increase in invoices, indirectly affecting all the costs of production and transport.
Taxes and excise duties: The generalized VAT increase and excise increase are found in increased costs for many mass products and services.
High budget deficit: The high state expenses and insufficient tax revenues increase the pressure on the budget, lead to expensive loans and amplify the demand in the economy, emphasizing inflation.
Imports and low productivity: Romania has a great dependence on imports, and productivity is below the EU average – from here, higher price fluctuations for essential goods, especially when the exchange rate is depreciated or when the external costs increase.
Budget-fiscal strategies: Fiscal adjustments and lack of major structural reforms (slow absorption of European funds, poorly calibrated energy support policies) have contributed additionally to prices volatility
