Vice President of the ZBP: Banks' revenues are quite sensitive to changes in interest rates

Banks' revenues are quite sensitive to changes in interest rates – Agnieszka Wachnicka's vice president of the Polish Bank Association told PAP in the lobby of the Economic Forum in Karpacz. She noted that in the bank's assets structure there are also percentage bonds that are resistant to these changes.

Vice President Wachnicka announced that the signals from the Monetary Policy Council indicate a reduction in interest rates by 25 base points this year, thus at the end of 2025 the reference rate of the National Bank of Poland would be 4.75 percent. (currently 5 percent).

– As for the revenue page, banks in Poland are quite sensitive to interest rate changes. We have the highest share of interest revenues among the banking sectors in the EU – over 80 percent, with an average in the EU about 60 percent. Let us remember, however, that the bank's assets structure is currently very high, the share of securities, mainly treasury, which exceeds the share of loans for the non -financial sector. These are largely percentage papers, which in a short period will be less sensitive to changes in interest rates – explained Wachnicka.

In her opinion, it can be expected that the impact of reductions on banks' finances will be extended in time and will be visible in the coming years.

– I do not expect rapid changes after another rate reduction. It should be borne in mind that most new mortgage loans that are concluded are loans for a periodically fixed interest rate, and their valuable share in the entire mortgage loan portfolio already exceeds 30 percent. These loans stabilize the revenues of banks in the usually five-year period, although we see an increase in the number of contracts with a period of fixed foot in the range of 5-10 years. In addition, the high share of securities in the assets of banks will also soothe the absorption of interest rate reduction – noted the interlocutor of PAP.

She also pointed out that depending on the loan segment, interest rate reduction may affect the credit shares. – We currently have a very high revival in the mortgage segment; These are record numbers after the period of stagnation (in the second quarter of this year, 55.5 thousand housing loans were granted for over PLN 24 billion – PAP). This is of course the aftermath of the fact that the feet, and in the trace of loan prices for them, have already dropped, and we anticipate that they will continue to decline. The issues of the program subsidies program have also been resolved – it will not be, so consumers who have been refraining from decisions so far decide to buy real estate – Wachnicka pointed out.

She added, however, that the situation in the loan segment for enterprises looks different. – We still need revival when it comes to loans for enterprises, especially investment, because – as we pointed out in the September report “Poland and Europe” – we are in the tail of Europe in this respect – said the Vice President of ZBP.

In her opinion, this is the result of a lack of demand from companies that are afraid to invest. She emphasized that this was not due to the high cost of financing, although she admitted that it was one of the barriers. – In the first place, companies point to unstable geopolitical surroundings, companies do not know whether they will be able to often implement a long -term investment. Entrepreneurs also exchange unstable legal and administrative environment – noted the interlocutor of PAP.

According to her, the government should encourage companies to invest, e.g. in the form of credit guarantees, which – as she assured – are a “great instrument”, which can be seen on the example of the instruments offered by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego. – If we have a loan with a warranty, entrepreneurs are happy to use it and allocation, i.e. the demand reported by banks, is usually much higher than the limits provided for use. I think that you also need to put a lot of emphasis on building among entrepreneurs the belief that investing simply pays off – she pointed out.

Wachnicka estimated that companies' investments should focus on innovation, including automation, because “Poland no longer has a cheap labor force that she had a few years ago.” – We must focus on raising work productivity and address the problem of decreasing labor resources in connection with the progressive aging of Polish society – she emphasized. She noted that innovation is especially needed in micro, small and medium -sized enterprises. She added that in the innovation rankings Poland is still quite poor, and expenditure on research and development is among the lowest among all investment outlays of enterprises.

She pointed out that one of such solutions could be to implement solutions based on artificial intelligence. The Vice President of the ZBP said that this tool improves work and processes inside the company and can help manage enterprise. – on the example of banks; AI is already used, e.g. in creditworthiness assessment, in scoring processes. Banks currently use AI also in customer security processes, e.g. as part of a behavioral analysis, where the algorithm based on the analysis of our way of using banking is able to detect cases when someone else logged in to our account and block such transactions – she said.

Jacek Stankiewicz (PAP)

JLS/ MMU/ DRAG/ LM/