To the east, through the north – west. 7 Possible probabilities before Trump's meeting – Putin
Photo: Twitter / X
A few boring generalities about the truth.
In a war in sight, but in which at least half of this planet has one interest or another, it is the easiest to hide the truth.
Not because the truth would be very complicated, difficult to understand and handle, only that there is something above the truth, as well, a simple thing, which is called the interest of the one who is looking for it.
When the interests are different, the truths are accepted only if they correspond to them, extended contingencies, bloggers, opinion trainers, study centers and research, paint their own conflict reality, and armed by analysts, observers, commentators, speeches work to make the mission of the political leaders more easily.
In a war in sight, its end may be according to the evolutions on the front – and, in this case, the truth is the one perceived by the first line fighters – but it can also be as a result of some arrangements from another level, where it is known that this war is just a battle, the interests are wider, they must be satisfied, even if, in the process, in the process, At the same time, sculptors from different artistic schools.
In this second case, the truth remains a variable that only a small circle knows, in pure form will be preserved behind closed doors, and in an altered but edible form, it will be delivered to the citizens, they also have the right to information.
To be received!
There is a whole specialized literature on the scale of use of these terms – probably, possible – when the information analysis scenarios are performed, what is possible does not necessarily get, what is probably not happening, while something can be considered impossible and unlikely that overturn everything.
Sometimes it is a black swan, sometimes it is just a truth that erupts without news and without approval, sometimes we expect to fall the dice.
And with that, Basta generalities.
Photo: Twitter / X
So 7 possible probabilities about what will happen next week
1.
Probably, it will be a Trump – Putin and Punctum meeting. Of course, if it happens, it will not be the exclusive result of Steve Witkoff's visit to Moscow, the favorite negotiator of the US President. This is not organized from one day to another, from one week to another, has previously worked seriously that the meeting will take place and it is, again, probably favored by certain circumstances, some public, some confidential;
2.
Probably, among the confidential arguments of organizing this meeting is an offer to be unrefused, proposed, in principle, by the American side, the one who had the initiative, although it did not exclude that the Russian part would have softened from the categorical tone of the requests with which it was presented at the previous negotiations. Being something new and interesting, it may not be related to the Ukraine war, although the meeting is supposed to be just about this subject. For example, it could be a wider agreement on nuclear and European security. If the offer concerns only the developments in Ukraine, most likely, it came from the Russian, to facilitate President Trump a solution to keep his profile as a negotiator – head for planetary peace. Of course, the Kremlin has asked for something in return, nothing in this world is free;
3.
Probably, Russia has come to the conclusion that Trump, with all its periodic position changes, is the only international political leader with which he can negotiate (and get something from it). European leaders, American Deepsate and Kiev leadership are still an unwavering intransigence, on the counter with the evolutions in the field, which can have negative effects for Russia as the conflict continues. The opportunity window for the Kremlin is probably given by a certain fever at the level of the American administration to obtain something palpable either in the economic field, where the impositions of coercive tariffs can have opposite effects, or in the political one, of the reconfirmation of the US role, implicitly by Trump, in putting in the world out yard. If that peace prize is given, the better;
4. Probably little could provide territorial concessions to Ukraine (No, you do not think too far!), In the sense of limiting Russia's requests to the four regions (with the capitals Herson and Zaporojie, with everything), plus Crimea. The bad news: it is a fairly powerful argument, given that the prospect is already discussed that, in one – two years, Russia will occupy the next administrative – historical alignment. The less bad news, but not so good: this offer would also include the request for a long -term security agreement that provides both that Russia stops here from the west march, but also that NATO does not extend to the east, so neither in Ukraine (Georgia's accession ambitions);
Photo: Twitter / X
5.
Probably, the meeting will only be bilateral, in the Trump – Putin format.
This would be a natural consequence of approaching a wider agenda than Ukraine's space and problem. With a little chance, if it is considered that it does not break a distance spectator, there could be someone in the location, conditioned, however, to keep the silence. If he agrees, he will receive the GPS / Blonass coordinates and the perimeter until he has access. It would also be a consequence of the analyzes done, certainly, about the next step after this meeting in which …;
6.
Probably, Ukraine will be asked to assume the part that will return to these decisions. Here things will become truly complicated and unpredictable, as there are no signs that the current Kiev leadership, or any other future leadership, could accept a territorial integrity of Ukraine, a deviation from the constitutional provisions that oblige the country to NATO. For now, Kiev has a B plan, counting on the support of Europe, but it is not known if it has, in its turn, a plan B, if the US withdraws from the continental security architecture. I know, it seems a fantasy to evoke this perspective, but we are in the situation, paradoxically, is it?, In which the US puts tariffs in the direction of the Allies and postpones those for imports from China and Russia;
7.
Probably it will be about the economy againabout President Trump's attempt to extract Russia from the partnership with China. It is the first meeting at this level between the US and Russia after four years and, although the fragmentary organizational details, as well as the lack of a clear agenda addressed, seem to take the discussions between the two leaders in a conjunctural context, of provisional and political theater, it is possible that the US proposal, the “escaped” to the press to the press, to this counselor. It would involve important steps, unthinkable at this time, raising sanctions, investments, partnerships, etc. And so on It is a paradoxical period, in which yesterday's enemies can become overnight tomorrow's partners, again the enemies of death. The present always confuses us, and the decisions that make history are often the result of the given in Bobi.
And I got to …
Photo: Twitter / X
… Some other collateral comments about the Trump Summit-Putin from Alaska and the situation in which it takes place
As you can see, the location has clarified, on the American territory, a Russian, purchased, as it is done in the good world, for money, many or few, depends on the calculation.
So it will be strictly a bilateral problem, “tertium non datur”, the perimeter is safe.
And it is not that the third parties will not be discussed, of course the agenda will include them, but such meetings, in discrete places, away from curious flashes, Malta, in Yalta, in Reykjavík, are the ones that change the world map, end or inaugurate eras.
Maybe this will happen now, or maybe not.
To make things a little clearer, in the previous paragraphs it was about developments that could take place, even if some are quite bold, but remain probable, while still, comments are about a single bilateral meeting to solve the problems accumulated for more than a decade between the two states.
Thus, in Alaska and beyond:
1.
The idea of meeting may only be a bilateral voltage relaxation valve (Hello!, Medvedev, is heard?) And the pressure from third parties, of which both the US and Russia need to score in the chapter “we negotiate, we are responsible states, we do not allow things to degenerate”;
2.
If something will be decided on The war in Ukraine, more than sure, will not be what is expected in Kiev. It will be difficult to obtain the agreement of the current Ukrainian leadership for a signature that involves even the alienation of a square kilometer from the land of the country. If it will be reached here, the variants are for the US to transfer the problem of the conflict in Ukraine or that Kiev will occur a power transfer;
3.
And when it comes to power, the candidates are not missing, some new ones appear. In addition to the “classics” Zlujnîi, Kliciko, Poroshenko and Budanov, all appreciated to be more national than the current president, there are new two names: Iulia Timoshenko, former prime minister and Anna Skorohod, deputy in the Supreme Rada. Their speeches seem to prepare the conditions so that a possible transfer of territories can be accepted by the population. Of course, under a new political leadership:
– Iulia Timoșenko says that Ukraine will be able to maintain its sovereignty even if it loses something else, it invokes the “western dictatorship” to emphasize Kiev's independence, “We lose the territories but we will remain independent and sovereigns”;
– Anna Skorohod has been highlighted by presenting uncensored data about deserters (400,000!), About forced recruitment, about the lack of perspective of Ukrainian young people, about the suffering of the war, its root speeches invoking the fact that the country approaches the boiling point and it is necessary to cease, “These people have the right to return home to their families, their wives, their children and to resume a normal life.”
***
Meanwhile in Alaska …
