The Polish economy is based on solid foundations and is still developing more dynamically than the euro area. According to Oxford Economics estimates, the expected GDP for Poland is 3.4 percent. in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026 – much above the average for the euro area, forecast for about 0.9 percent. annually. The domestic commercial market is again driven by the increase in sales volume, which means that Poles buy more goods and services, and not only pay more due to inflation.
It is worth emphasizing that the participation of e-commerce in Poland in complete sales persists at a stable level of about 10 percent, which indicates the strong attachment of consumers to traditional forms of shopping, as in Italy or Spain. After a noticeable slowdown in 2023 and small compression in 2024, the market returned to the growth path, which is confirmed by the CSO data from April 2025, indicating a positive dynamics year on year.
Triumph of shopping parks
The last five years in Poland have been a stunning career of commercial parks and convenience centers, which during this period were responsible for 1.6 million sq m of the new rental area, compared to 530 thousand. sq m in traditional shopping centers. This domination, especially visible in smaller cities, has reduced the medium -sized new investments, which we have already written in this article.
In mid -June 2025, 560 thousand remained under construction. sq m, of which 87 percent This area is shopping parks and convenience centers. In turn, six existing shopping centers were under development.
– The dominant trend in shopping centers is quality, not quantity – the market focuses on matching the offer to the evolving needs of consumers – says Maciej Kotowski, Director, Research and Consultants, JLL. – In turn, new shopping parks are responsible for completing deficiencies on the commercial map of Poland. New investments appear in both the smallest towns, where the modern offer was missing so far, and in the suburbs of large agglomerationswhere housing development and suburbanization generate the demand for convenient shopping close to home. Although the commercial map of the country is more and more filling, there are still locations with potential, but their identification requires precise analysis and accurate planning – comments the expert.
Modernization and variety of formats
Although the market of shopping centers is already largely saturated, an intense wave of modernization and subsequent expansions of existing galleries is observed. Over the past five years, about 7 percent Changes such as Pogoria in Dąbrowa Górnicza have undergone facilities.
The Polish commercial real estate market is characterized today by a unique variety of formats. The Mixed Use real estate segment is dynamically developing, which is responsible for the expansion of the commercial offer in the centers of the largest agglomerations, in accordance with the idea of “15-minute city”. Examples of such investments are Towarowa 22, Norblin or Warsaw Browary, where commercial and service functions are combined with housing and office.
Commercial premises in the ground floor of residential buildings are also gaining importance. In Warsaw alone, in recent years, a total of about 8,000 sq m of such area has been created. The segment of shopping streets – High Strets is also gradually developing, where large, modern monobrand stores are often created. Great examples are Wars Sawa Junior and the flagship stores of Adidas and Uniqlo, as well as the newly target showrooms Lenovo and Byd in the vicinity of Powstańców Warszawy Square.
Evolution of commercial offer
Over the past five years there has been a great change in the offer of commercial facilities. Tenant-Mix is regularly updated, which translates into the growing presence of gastronomy, entertainment and drugstore networks in shopping centers. There are also more and more often there from the Value Retail segment, which initially filled the pandemic gaps, and today they are a permanent element of the commercial landscape.
“Despite the expanding group of tenants, Tenant-Mix in parks still remains relatively narrow compared to centers, with the dominance of repeated brands,” forecasts Dagmara Filipiak, Head of Retail Agency, JLL Poland. – But The best functioning parks, especially near large cities, have the potential to attract new brandsso far present only in traditional galleries, which can significantly affect the further diversification of the offer and the development of this market segment – he adds.
Return of investors
The commercial real estate sector is again gaining in importance on the investment market – it was the second most active investment segment in 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025. Commercial parks play a special role in the transaction volume, but also shopping centers remain attractiveas evidenced by large transactions from 2024, such as the sale of Silesia in Katowice and Magnolia in Wrocław.
Read also: Record results on the Polish commercial real estate market
In the first quarter of 2025, the number of transactions has already exceeded half of the total number from 2024, despite the lower total value. Capitalization rates remain at an elevated level, but their compression is coming, especially in the case of shopping parks.
– The retail sector, especially trade parks, can be the first segment of commercial real estate that will record this trend – forecasts Agnieszka Kłot, Executive Director, JLL. – In the near future, transactions of larger park wallets with a value of up to EUR 100 million are expectedas well as the appearance of new investment players, including entities from the CEE region and domestic investors, which can open new, attractive possibilities also for shopping centers – emphasizes the expert.
