The last decision of the US has strengthened Vladimir Putin's theory of how he can win in Ukraine. What the Institute for War Study is written in its latest report

The suspension of US military aid for Ukraine will strengthen the victory theory of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which assumes that Russia can win the war of wear through slow, gradually and through a waiting strategy stating that the West will “tire” to support Kiev, notes the Institute for the Study (ISW) in the USA.

Putin expressed his victory theory in June 2024-and has been constantly emphasized since then-theory that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue slowly and gradually and will gain a war against Ukrainian forces.

Putin's theory is based on the assumption that Russia will be able to withstand more than the security assistance promised by the West and that Ukraine will not be able to obtain and support the necessary personnel and equipment to stop these gradual winnings of Russia or to take over the initiative and to carry out counter -offensive operations.

ISW stresses that the recent suspension of US aid will strengthen Putin's belief that time works in favor of Russia and will strengthen his decision to postpone negotiations for peaceful settlement and extend the war.

The White House confirmed on Wednesday that it had suspended some armament deliveries to Ukraine, after the information was initially transmitted by the American media “on sources”.

“This decision was made to put America's interests on the forefront”, following an analysis of the Defense Department on “the support and assistance provided by the US Army to other countries around the world,” said Anna Kelly, one of the White House spokes.

The new decision came after the US had not approved any new military assistance package for Ukraine after Trump's investment, as The Kyiv Independent Since mid -June.

Putin's victory theory based on a war of wear in Ukraine

“It is unlikely that Russia will obtain significant progress at the operational level in the near future. Even in the case of relatively accelerated Russian advancements after the US help, the earnings will probably continue to be slow and gradual and will come with disproportionately large losses, as the Russian forces have not yet re-entered the capacity,”

It analyzed geolocalized evidence indicating that Russian forces earned about 498 square kilometers in May 2025 and about 466 square kilometers in June 2025, and Russian winnings from January-April 2025 ranged from about 175 and 590 square kilometers per month. These Russian earnings are considerably lower than the 1,265 square kilometers per day that Isw estimates that Russia obtained at the beginning of the large -scale invasion in March 2022.

However, Russia seems to prepare for offensive campaigns that will probably take months or even years – which shows that Russian military command accepts the idea of ​​slow and gradual advances, and Putin remains convinced of his victory theory.

The Russian military command has recently prioritized the attack efforts on the Ukraine fortification belt in the Donetk region, a campaign that, at the current rhythm of Russian forces, could take years to be completed. Russian forces may not be able to achieve these goals by one alone.

CNN reported on July 2 that an evaluation of Ukrainian intelligence services indicates that North Korea could send another 25,000 – 30,000 soldiers to Russia in the coming months and that there is a “high probability” for them to support Russian forces in Ukraine, including “during the extensive offensive operations”.

Kremlin jubbles after suspending American aid

Kremlin officials have already responded to the suspension of US military aid by public promotion of Putin's theory of military victory as a success – in direct opposition to the declared objective of US President Donald Trump to bring Russia to the negotiation mass and to achieve sustainable and fair peace.

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, said on July 2, as a reaction to the suspension of the US military aid, that “the less weapons are provided, the more the end. [invaziei ruse în Ucraina] It is closer. ”

The director of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriev, intensely involved in diplomatic and communication efforts in relation to Ukraine and the United States, said that the suspension of aid “raises question marks on the ability of the West to continue to support Ukraine.”

Vice -President of the State Duma Defense Commission, Dmitri Juravliov, suggested that the suspension of US military aid will reduce Ukraine's ability to “resist” to Russian offensive operations and claimed that the United States will not be able to “hide” from Russia future weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Russia is not interested in any peace negotiation as long as you think it can win in Ukraine

“These statements of Russian officials emphasize how the Kremlin perceives Putin's victory theory in relation to Western military assistance – especially the American – for Ukraine and serve the Kremlin's purpose to constrain the United States and other Western states to cease military support for Ukraine,” says ISW.

According to him, the Kremlin takes advantage of the suspension of American aid to intensify the messages that urges Europe to cease weapons to Ukraine.

Putin had a telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron on July 2, the first call between the two leaders after almost three years, an occasion with which he reiterated the standard Kremlin narrations meant to discourage the continuation of Western military support for Ukraine.

The spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zaharova, also criticized the continuation of European military support for Ukraine. Kremlin's rhetoric on suspending US military aid for Ukraine “is still an indicator that Russia remains determined to achieve its war objectives and is not interested in real peace negotiations to end the conflict,” says ISW.

Summer Perspectives for Kiev Military and Civil Leaders

The ISW also notes that the US decision to suspend military aid for Ukraine will especially weaken Ukraine's ability to defend against improved attacks and long -range rockets and drones, attacks that caused significant civil victims – in a flagrant contrast to President Trump to stop Loss of human living.

The US supply of Patriot anti -aircraft defense systems and related interceptors was essential for Ukraine's ability to defend against Russian missiles, especially those with ballistic missiles. Russia's long -ray strokes have been targeted more and more densely populated cities, away from the front line.

Russia has recently prioritized the expansion of long -range drones and rockets and storage of its ballistic missiles, which allows it to perform series of attacks combined with wider and more efficient rockets and drones.

Russia performed in March-June 2025 five of the largest combined attacks against Ukraine since the beginning of the large-scale invasion and launches an increasing number of shahed drones and carpcan drones, which overload the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense and allow more Russian missiles to reach their targets.

Russia has recently adapted its attack tactics to cause maximum damage to civilians, including the use of delayed detonation dispersion ammunition, Shahed drones equipped with chemical weapons and by “Double Tap” attacks meant to cause victims among civilian rescuers.

“It is very likely that Russia continues to increase the extent of its combined attacks against Ukraine, as it remains determined to accelerate the production of rockets and drones. The US suspension of critical deliveries of Patriot to Ukraine will probably affect Ukraine's ability to protect its critical, industrial and civil infrastructure,” writes ISW.

He also recalls that Russian forces exploited breaks in American military aid granted to Ukraine at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 to perform large -scale combined attacks meant to exhaust the Ukrainian anti -aircraft weakened by the lack of Western help.

“A decrease in the stock of Patriot interceptors will force Ukraine to continue to make difficult decisions regarding the defense priorities,” concludes the Institute for the Study of the War.