Putin is filled with Moldova with his tentacles. I want to implement the “Georgian script”
During the European Council meeting, 27 EU leaders confirmed the strong support for Moldova's decision to get closer to the West. However, Russia will try to disrupt this process, primarily through interference in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova.
The near future promises to be intensive not only in the fields of the battles of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but also on the front of the Russian hybrid war against the West. The autumn parliamentary elections in Moldova will be one of the decisive confrontations in this fight.
The focus of Russian propagandists in Moldova became clearly visible during the presidential election in 2024. The first round of voting is particularly eloquent, which coincided with the referendum on European integration.
Of the 482 sources informing about the elections in Moldova, during voting and counting votes, 150 channels on the telegram were hacked. Their activities were directly related to the Kremlin's efforts aimed at influencing the media, and the sources supported by the state began disinformation campaigns and attempts to manipulate public opinion. As a result, every third source informing about the presidential election in Moldova was unbelievable.
Monitoring similar influential campaigns conducted by the Institute of Studies and Analysis of Conflicts of Russia (ICAR) in the years 2024–2025 reveals that the sources hacked and related to the Kremlin reporting elections in Moldova appeared twice as often as in other political interference operations.
Intensive propaganda and key character
The seriousness of the Kremlin's involvement and significant resources intended for this purpose became obvious after two months of monitoring the latest pre -election situation in Moldova.
In the period from April 15 to June 15, 2025, ICAR in cooperation with Moldovan partners from Watchdog MD conducted nine weekly sessions monitoring attempts to take control of the election process in Moldova and influence the internal political dynamics of the country by Russian propaganda.
Monitoring was aimed at identifying key propaganda and prominent propagandists who distort the political landscape of Moldova to serve the Kremlin agenda. Researchers collected data from Russian channels on a telegram using automated AI tools and manual analysis.
The main conclusion from the ICAR report was that At the same time, Moscow finances many political projects to maximize its chances of securing a pro -Russian parliament this fall. These operations were directed against the former president and chairman of the parliament Vladimir Woronin, the controversial former President Igor Dodon, former Prime Minister Vasyl Tarlew, former anti -corruption prosecutor Victoria Fortuna, and even seemingly pro -European Chisinian Mayor Ion Ceban.
Ilan Shor, businessman and architect of the financial pyramid that enabled the theft and transfer of a billion dollars [niemal 4 mld zł] to tax havens, plays a key coordination role among the pro -Russian figures of the opposition. He was very active throughout the entire monitoring period by ICAR, taking the floor in virtually every important event and strengthening key Russian narratives.
Businessman ILAN SHOR during the opening of the Moldovan shop “Eurasia” in Moscow, Russia, September 17, 2024.
Different methods: Gagauzja as a new weapon
The second conclusion is that Russia is ready to escalate the pressure on Moldova by activating new pressure points and potential forbidden in the region. Although the separatist region of Transnistria remains a traditional Moscow lever to influence Moldova's internal affairs, the Kremlin clearly decided to diversify his approach, using gagausia [Terytorium Autonomiczne Gagauzji w południowej Mołdawii] as a weapon to create new nightmares for jerking.
During the monitoring period, the media that was compromised, actively promoted Ewgenia Gutul, a governor of the autonomous region of gagausia. The Moldovan authorities are chasing Gutul for the illegal financing of the former SHOR party, named after the famous billionaire, and for mismanagement in managing its financial resources. However, Russian propaganda presents its prosecution as evidence of chisinum determination to eliminate regional autonomy and suppress the political opposition. The ICAR report showed that Moscow is making significant and systematic efforts to promote this narrative.
Supporters of the SHOR Political Party protest against the arrest of Ektul, the autonomous leader of the Gagausia region in Moldova, during its interrogation in court in Chisinau, Moldova, March 31, 2025.
In the report, the authors also stated that Russian propagandists sought to strengthen euroscepticism in Moldovan society and challenge society trust in democratic institutions. The channels they run emphasize the specific and immediate benefits of the alliance with Russia, such as lower gas prices, instead of the elusive and less certain promises of a better future in the EU.
The insolent pro -Russianness of Viktor Orban
In the near future Moscow's main goal is to slow down the rapid pace of Moldova's approach to membership in the EU. This is also crucial as a demonstration for the world, and especially for strength in Europe, which have doubts that the Kremlin can still achieve what he wants, without resorting to open aggression. The hybrid war of Russia is to contrast with the destruction that Russian forces sow in Ukraine. Moldova and Ukraine were invited to join the EU at the same time. Their parallel progress on the road to integration with the West seemed irresistible until Moscow intervened.
Moldova can also be seen as a experimental training ground, to which Moscow can direct her attention in the next way. The same strategies cannot be used in Ukraine, where there is no election and it is not possible to promote pro -Russian politicians, as it was before 2022. It is also not possible to intimidate the population with the perspective of war, because the ruthless war is already going on.
Moscow strives to weaken Ukraine's tired ties with the West, attacking corrupt regimes in the EU itself, primarily through Viktor Orban and his regime in Hungary. Orban openly opposes Ukraine's membership in the EU and does everything in his power to block the adoption of significant sanctions against Russia. His permanent ally is the prime minister of Slovakia Robert Fico, but even he lasts behind the insolent pro -Russian behavior of Orban.
The open campaign of Viktor Orban against Ukraine cannot be explained solely by the reasons for internal policy, and especially his desire to win another election by fueling fear in Hungarian society. The polls indicate that Orban's chances of victory are constantly decreasing. Moscow does not have time to lose and puts everything on one card, using Orban, regardless of the risk of interference in the affairs of another state.
It seems that the time has come for the EU to react to Budapest's friendly relations with Moscow. However, it seems that Brussels will not take any action. Officials hope that the Hungarian problem will be solved by itself during the 2026 elections, which can lead to the creation of a pro -European government.
The Kremlin is also aware of this, which means that Russia's interference in the elections in Hungary is almost inevitable. Therefore, you should continue monitoring the situation.
