The head of the Swedish army is “certain”: the Russians will test NATO's Article 5 very soon. “They are prepared to take enormous strategic risks”
Europe must prepare for a “generational” war with Russia. The warning comes from Swedish Defense Chief General Michael Claesson.
Russia will “probably test very soon” NATO's commitment to collective defense (Article 5 of the founding treaty), the senior Swedish military official said in an interview with Politico, amid Moscow's intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks against Europe.
“I am sure and convinced that they (the Russians, no) will be ready to test NATO Article 5 at any time, in the Baltic states or in any other part of Europe,” said the supreme commander of the Swedish armed forces, General Claesson, referring to the alliance's common defense provision.
“They are prepared to take enormous strategic risks to achieve whatever they think is possible,” he added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin's previous military campaigns. “We saw this in Chechnya, we saw this in Georgia, we saw this in Crimea.”
In recent months, European countries have faced an unprecedented wave of hybrid attacks, from apparent air raids by Russian planes and drones, to GPS signal spoofing over the Baltic Sea and suspicious drone incidents over military bases and airports. Just this week, the government in Warsaw claimed that Russian agents were behind the explosion of a railway line connecting Poland to Ukraine.
“It's a huge problem, where they play with relatively … small means and create a lot of effects,” Claesson said.
On Wednesday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said hybrid attacks posed an “extreme danger” to the bloc's critical infrastructure. In response, NATO has begun moving military equipment, such as aircraft and anti-aircraft systems, to the bloc's frontline member states.
“This is a very dangerous phase of escalation and we should approach it very seriously because we are minutes away from many victims,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told the Brussels-based publication ahead of Thursday's meeting of EU foreign ministers.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto complained this week that Western states were doing too little to counter potentially “catastrophic” Russian hybrid attacks.
“Mr. Putin's Wet Dream”
Michael Claesson also warned in the interview published on Wednesday that Moscow will probably not stop testing the alliance, regardless of whether current US diplomatic efforts end the war in Ukraine or not.
“The collective West is in a systemic conflict with Russia that will take a long time to resolve,” the Swedish general said. “We're basically talking about a generation … it's something that won't go away with an eventual ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine.”
This reality should prompt a shift in priorities, he argued, given that countries are currently too focused on the future threat of Russia's conventional military rebuilding, rather than its continued attempts to exploit divisions in Europe.
Earlier this week, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Moscow could be able to launch an attack on a NATO member state as early as 2028.
“Theoretically, it's interesting to see when they might launch a large-scale conventional military attack,” Claesson said, “but that distracts us from the real issue, which is that they're destroying cohesion.”
“The polarized politics that is a reality in many European countries today creates … a candy store that the hybrid warrior can exploit,” the general said. “This is Mr. Putin's wet dream because this ambiguity is something that can always be exploited.”
Instead, Europe must stand up to Moscow, he insisted.
“The only language that is understood is force,” Claesson said. “We have to be firm … withdrawing all the time is not the right answer because … it encourages” the Russians, the Swedish army chief snapped.
